Authorities to issue dollar bonds to raise ARS funding and mitigate hard currency shortages. Intervention firepower is limited by skyrocketing spreads and low appetite for Argentine risk. Muddling-through is possible on paper, yet the balance of risk...

ARS debt swap reached a 58% of participation level, below the 64% consent initially announced. Only 13.8% of private investors entered the swap. Risks of further FX pressures ahead of the election remain valid.

FX protection loses value. Fiscal fundamentals back on the front burner. BA City, Chaco, Entre Ríos and Salta are our new top picks. Playing the “electoral trade” with PBA bonds could disappoint.

EM spread compression is heading to a hiatus. We see domestic fundamentals taking the front seat. OW Argentina, Barbados, C. Rica, El Salv., Guatemala, Honduras; UW Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Panama; NEU DomRep, Paraguay.

Common currency benefits: anchor economic policy and reduce barriers to cross-border trade, investment, and travel. Common currency pitfalls: unsustainable without fiscal (political) harmonisation, distorts export competitiveness. Common currency req...

Five EMs with poor economic policy are holding elections in 2023: Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, Zimbabwe. Hopes for a positive policy pivot should be tempered because the incumbent is strong or vested interests too entrenched. Yet, an orderly...