In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...

Covid-19continues to oscillate between a source of gloom (new waves of infections even in those countries previously successful in their control of it, lasting economic damage to traditional businesses) and one of optimism (partial control of infecti...

Argentina's real GDP declined by 19.2% yoy in Q2 20 according to official data released yesterday (see chart). While the extent of the contraction was broadly anticipated, with the Bloomberg consensus showing -18.5% yoy, it nonetheless remains at the...

This more constructive environment for LATAM FX would be justified as a catch-up to the sharp USD correction seen in recent months, the ongoing uptrend in commodity prices, growing evidence that the Covid-19 spread is subsiding throughout the region...

The long-term outlook is still not clear due to the slump in economic activity in recent months and uncertain recovery. We suggest reducing exposure to Telecom (TEO) as the new Government regulation would be very negative for the company’s business....

This is the second in a series of thought pieces that will look at the role of development finance institutions post-Covid-19. In practice, however, the IMF has so far stuck to its guns and refused to extend funding for countries with an unsustainabl...