The world entered the COVID-19 pandemic with persistent, pre-existing external imbalances. Foreign exchange intervention, where needed and where reserves are adequate, could help alleviate disorderly market conditions. Over the medium term, reducing...

For manufacturing activities not easily replaced by automation or 3D printing, which countries win share from China? Low wages and scale matter most in this segment: We plot wage curve up to China in countries with over 40mn population. Labour flexib...

LATAM OFTEN DISPLAYS A DEGREE OF EXCEPTIONALISM COMPARED TO PEERS IN EM. Capital controls are also in place, which means fresh foreign capital can consider the ADR listings alone. However, without confidence that the creditor negotiations will resolv...

DOES CORRUPTION BOTHER YOU? Bangladesh: The use of anti-corruption as a means to persecute and weaken those politicians sitting in the opposition precedes the post-2009 era of the de facto one-party state under the Awami League (ie the Bangladesh Nat...

Argentina announced amendments to its debt exchange offer last night. We will publish our estimates of the revised terms shortly, although we doubt it improves the government's offer by much (previously cUS$50 at a 10% exit yield). However, while thi...

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...