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Flash Report / Argentina

Argentina: The bottom of the barrel

Authorities to issue dollar bonds to raise ARS funding and mitigate hard currency shortages. Intervention firepower is limited by skyrocketing spreads and low appetite for Argentine risk. Muddling-through is possible on paper, yet the balance of risk...
BancTrust & Co. Ramiro
Ramiro Blazquez @ BancTrust & Co. 22 March 2023
Flash Report / Argentina

Argentina: Private sector participation in local debt swap disappoints

ARS debt swap reached a 58% of participation level, below the 64% consent initially announced. Only 13.8% of private investors entered the swap. Risks of further FX pressures ahead of the election remain valid.
BancTrust & Co. Juan
Juan Sola @ BancTrust & Co. 10 March 2023

Argentina provinces: Provincial fundamentals take the front seat

FX protection loses value. Fiscal fundamentals back on the front burner. BA City, Chaco, Entre Ríos and Salta are our new top picks. Playing the “electoral trade” with PBA bonds could disappoint.
BancTrust & Co. Federico
Federico Cuba @ BancTrust & Co. 3 March 2023

Home-grown factors back on the front burner

EM spread compression is heading to a hiatus. We see domestic fundamentals taking the front seat. OW Argentina, Barbados, C. Rica, El Salv., Guatemala, Honduras; UW Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Panama; NEU DomRep, Paraguay.
BancTrust & Co. Ramiro
Ramiro Blazquez @ BancTrust & Co. 10 February 2023

Brazil-Argentina common currency: An idea so bad, why is it being discussed?

Common currency benefits: anchor economic policy and reduce barriers to cross-border trade, investment, and travel. Common currency pitfalls: unsustainable without fiscal (political) harmonisation, distorts export competitiveness. Common currency req...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 23 January 2023
Brazil-Argentina common currency: An idea so bad, why is it being discussed?
Brazil-Argentina common currency: An idea so bad, why is it being discussed?

Elections in Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Thailand, Turkey in 2023

Five EMs with poor economic policy are holding elections in 2023: Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, Zimbabwe. Hopes for a positive policy pivot should be tempered because the incumbent is strong or vested interests too entrenched. Yet, an orderly...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 22 January 2023
Elections in Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Thailand, Turkey in 2023
Elections in Argentina, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, Thailand, Turkey in 2023