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Africa
Europe/CIS
Asia
MENA
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Morning Note / Turkey

Merkel likely to support Turkey and argue against sanctions next week

Efforts by Turkey's government to move ahead with new reforms continued. Lira continues to be strong, but this week is likely to start with some profit taking. We are starting the week with 3Q GDP data which be at 5% y/y after a 9.9% contraction in 2...
ATA Invest Batuhan Ozsahin
Batuhan Ozsahin @ ATA Invest 30 November 2020
Macro Analysis / Global

FX Daily: Dollar bear trend extends

The new week starts with a generally positive backdrop. Unless we see some dramatic lockdowns across the US in December, broad enough to trigger an equity correction, our bias is that the dollar stays pressured. EUR: Which way will month end re-balan...
ING Think
ING Think 30 November 2020
FX Daily: Dollar bear trend extends
FX Daily: Dollar bear trend extends
Macro Analysis / Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is still fuelling global energy demand, but now via renewables

In July 2020, US-based Air Products & Chemicals (the world's leading hydrogen producer) chose Saudi Arabia to build the world's first mega-scale green hydrogen plant – thanks to the record low solar prices in the region and its proximity to EU where...
Tellimer Research Vahaj Ahmed
Vahaj Ahmed @ Tellimer Research 30 November 2020
Saudi Arabia is still fuelling global energy demand, but now via renewables
Saudi Arabia is still fuelling global energy demand, but now via renewables
Macro Analysis / Japan

Japan: Riding their luck

The Japanese economy has not had a particularly bad pandemic, despite limited measures undertaken to prevent the spread of infection. On the plus side, the government’s aggressive fiscal stimulus plans mean that there should be plenty of JGBs to go r...
ING Think
ING Think 30 November 2020
Japan: Riding their luck
Japan: Riding their luck
Macro Analysis / China

China manufacturing PMI continued to rise

China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 52.1 in November from 51.4 a month ago. The jump was mostly due to more domestic new orders and an increase in raw material prices. New export orders also increased but less so compared to do...
ING Think
ING Think 30 November 2020
China manufacturing PMI continued to rise
China manufacturing PMI continued to rise
Weekend Reading / Global

New league table: The EMs best positioned to attract renewable energy investment

Although there has been a remarkable resurgence of oil consumption following Covid lockdowns, international oil companies (IOCs or so-called supermajors) are shifting away from hydrocarbons. On the one hand, there will be plenty of opportunities for...
Tellimer Research Paul Domjan
Paul Domjan @ Tellimer Research 28 November 2020
New league table: The EMs best positioned to attract renewable energy investment
New league table: The EMs best positioned to attract renewable energy investment
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This morning's briefing

OPEC+ meets, with debate over output cuts still to be settled.
The two-day meeting begins today and there is disagreement over whether to delay the previously agreed plan to raise oil output in January. Russia is thought to be in favour of postponing the output hike, but UAE has let it be known that it is opposed. Our report provides a reminder of the winners and losers in emerging markets from low oil prices. Get the full story →
OPEC+ meets, with debate over output cuts still to be settled.
A record-breaking November for markets draws to a close.
Covid-19 vaccines and US$ weakness have driven a global equity and commodity rally this month. Yet emerging and frontier markets are still cheap. Technology equities – except for Alibaba and Tencent – have kept pace, shrugging off regulatory risks in the US, EU, and China. We look at all the factors that have shaped equity performance this month, and what that means for December. Get the full story →
A record-breaking November for markets draws to a close.
Iran refuses to 'fall into the trap' after nuclear scientist assassination.
Iran has implicated Israel in the killing of its nuclear scientist near Tehran, but stated on its official government website that it won't 'fall into the trap of linking the assassination to past nuclear negotiations'. We have argued that investors should view Iran as a rational actor, and its reaction here is entirely in line with our view that restraint from Iran is more likely than retaliation, given Biden's pledge to restart negotiations. Iran needs relief on sanctions more than revenge. Get the full story →
Iran refuses to 'fall into the trap' after nuclear scientist assassination.
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness.
October’s trade balance posted a US$6,223.8mn surplus, a new historical high and surpassing all expectations. In the details, exports (4.8% m/m) gained additional momentum, while imports (1.3%) decelerated marginally. Banorte says that given sizable differences between external and domestic demand, they expect weakness in the latter through 4Q20. Get the full story →
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness.
Big tech versus banks.
Google’s latest strategy towards banking has once again brought up discussions around tech going head to head with traditional financial institutions. Its revamp, announced last week, include overhauling Google Pay to extend its services to digital bank accounts. For now Google will be working with banks – starting next year users will be able open and manage a bank account directly through its mobile wallet, while the accounts will be managed by Citibank and 10 other banks and credit unions. In our own consumer survey in emerging markets, we found that while fintechs and traditional financial institutions are both expected to win market share, fintech gains come mainly by tackling financial exclusion and ejecting informal channels; not by beating traditional financial institutions. Get the full story →
Big tech versus banks.
China criticises India app bans.
Chinese officials have strongly criticised India's decision to ban another 43 Chinese apps last week, further weakening the relationship between the two countries, which has been strained since border clashes earlier this year. India has now banned over 200 apps in the past few months, mostly Chinese. Our Ultimate Guide to Indian Fintech looks in detail at the prospects for the market, noting that its companies have benefited hugely from US and Chinese investment. The latter seems under threat. Get the full story →
China criticises India app bans.
In case you missed it

This morning's briefing

OPEC+ meets, with debate over output cuts still to be settled.
The two-day meeting begins today and there is disagreement over whether to delay the previously agreed plan to raise oil output in January. Russia is thought to be in favour of postponing the output hike, but UAE has let it be known that it is opposed. Our report provides a reminder of the winners and losers in emerging markets from low oil prices. Get the full story →
OPEC+ meets, with debate over output cuts still to be settled.
A record-breaking November for markets draws to a close.
Covid-19 vaccines and US$ weakness have driven a global equity and commodity rally this month. Yet emerging and frontier markets are still cheap. Technology equities – except for Alibaba and Tencent – have kept pace, shrugging off regulatory risks in the US, EU, and China. We look at all the factors that have shaped equity performance this month, and what that means for December. Get the full story →
A record-breaking November for markets draws to a close.
Iran refuses to 'fall into the trap' after nuclear scientist assassination.
Iran has implicated Israel in the killing of its nuclear scientist near Tehran, but stated on its official government website that it won't 'fall into the trap of linking the assassination to past nuclear negotiations'. We have argued that investors should view Iran as a rational actor, and its reaction here is entirely in line with our view that restraint from Iran is more likely than retaliation, given Biden's pledge to restart negotiations. Iran needs relief on sanctions more than revenge. Get the full story →
Iran refuses to 'fall into the trap' after nuclear scientist assassination.
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness.
October’s trade balance posted a US$6,223.8mn surplus, a new historical high and surpassing all expectations. In the details, exports (4.8% m/m) gained additional momentum, while imports (1.3%) decelerated marginally. Banorte says that given sizable differences between external and domestic demand, they expect weakness in the latter through 4Q20. Get the full story →
Mexico's record-high trade surplus signals domestic weakness.
Big tech versus banks.
Google’s latest strategy towards banking has once again brought up discussions around tech going head to head with traditional financial institutions. Its revamp, announced last week, include overhauling Google Pay to extend its services to digital bank accounts. For now Google will be working with banks – starting next year users will be able open and manage a bank account directly through its mobile wallet, while the accounts will be managed by Citibank and 10 other banks and credit unions. In our own consumer survey in emerging markets, we found that while fintechs and traditional financial institutions are both expected to win market share, fintech gains come mainly by tackling financial exclusion and ejecting informal channels; not by beating traditional financial institutions. Get the full story →
Big tech versus banks.
China criticises India app bans.
Chinese officials have strongly criticised India's decision to ban another 43 Chinese apps last week, further weakening the relationship between the two countries, which has been strained since border clashes earlier this year. India has now banned over 200 apps in the past few months, mostly Chinese. Our Ultimate Guide to Indian Fintech looks in detail at the prospects for the market, noting that its companies have benefited hugely from US and Chinese investment. The latter seems under threat. Get the full story →
China criticises India app bans.
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