Macro Analysis /
Global

Gifting Just Got More Generous for 2023

Alhambra Investments
Alhambra Investments  @ Alhambra Investments
5 October 2022
Strategy Note /
Global

OPEC+ output cut pains oil importers, Biden, anti-Russia bloc

OPEC+ cuts official output quota by 2mbpd from November, following through on last month's 100kbpd signal of intent. Pain of high oil price persists for net importers. And for US President Biden before Congressional mid-terms in November. Also a demo...

Tellimer Research
Tellimer Research  @ Tellimer Research
5 October 2022
Sovereign Analysis /
Global

Sri Lanka: Upgrade to Buy as bonds drop to 25 cents on the dollar

Eurobonds have dropped to mid-July lows of cUS$25 amid risk-off environment and expectations of difficult restructuring. At lower end of previous recovery value assumption of US$24-40 for '30s, with bonds pricing in a punitive restructuring. Notwiths...

Tellimer Research
Tellimer Research  @ Tellimer Research
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

What’s Happened to China’s Economy?

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Poland

Rates unchanged in Poland despite rising inflation

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Romania

Romanian National Bank review: not quite there yet

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
5 October 2022
Equity Analysis /
China

Is The Burnish off China's Golden Week?

J Capital
J Capital  @ J Capital
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Women, Life, Freedom, and the Left

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Europe's Converging Crises

Europe faces several major crises, including social uprising and unrest. Energy crisis is expected to exacerbate this. Europe's challenges may spillover to other continents.

ETM Analytics
ETM Analytics  @ ETM Analytics
5 October 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Toward a Progressive Economic Agenda

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
5 October 2022
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This evening's briefing

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Tellimer's top picks for October. We present five of our best current calls across economies, sectors, stocks and bonds for October: 1) Brazil tops large EM performance ytd and is still cheap; 2) Buy Mozambique bonds; 3) Egypt's currency devaluation is imminent; 4) China dominates best-yielding EM shares; 5) US dollar will remain on its perch. See our full report for the investment thesis behind each view.  Get the full story →
Long-short positions on 44 commodity markets. It's been a wild year for commodity markets – should you be long, short or just get out of there? Crystal Shore Dashboards provide point-to-point answers to these questions across the entire commodities universe. Not just the big four commodity sectors – Precious, Base, Energy and Foodstuffs – but 39 single commodities, from Arabica Coffee to WTI. Their investment strategy is straightforward: go long on those markets where the risk of capital loss is low. And short those markets where the risk of capital loss is high. Get the full story →
Mexico's anti-inflation plan is a positive but limited step. Mexico's President Andres Manuel López Obrador announced on Monday the details of a new deal made in agreement with food producers and retailers to keep food prices affordable. Inflation in Mexico is currently hovering at a 22-year high. So far, 15 companies are part of the plan – signatories will be granted a licence exempting them from quality checks by the national health regulators as well as a general import tax, Finance Minister Rogelio Ramirez said. According to analysts at Banorte, the measures are positive, reaffirming the government’s commitment to keep inflation contained. However, it might only have a limited impact given the global factors at play. Get the full story →
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EM sovereign issuance still subdued. EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance doubled to US$6.1bn in September from the previous month. However, coming from just three issuers for the second month running and with no high yield issuance again, activity remains paltry as the rising global rate environment continues to take its toll. It brings total EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance to US$67.6bn year-to-date, less than half (46%) of the amount seen in the same period last year. It means if issuance continues at this rate, it will reach cUS$90bn for the year, which we think would be the lowest since 2015. Get the full story →
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Murders in emerging markets: Now you can travel again, where's safer? As travel and tourism budgets begin to loosen we are again occasionally asked, 'is it safe for me to travel there?' One way to grade security risk is to compare homicide rates. This data suggests that questions over safety should be asked more often in advance of visits to countries such as Colombia, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria and South Africa, than countries such as Kazakhstan, Pakistan, or almost all of the investable countries in the Middle East (ex-Iraq). Insecurity has been sufficient to put investors off certain emerging market countries in the past. Examples in the past decade might include Nigeria and Pakistan and, from the preceding decades, the likes of Colombia, Egypt, South Africa and Sri Lanka. The resolution of insecurity risk creates opportunity for tourism, all other factors equal, and obviously creates opportunity for investors. All of these countries have seen that, albeit with a lag, when they have passed the peak of insecurity. Get the full story →
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5 UK equity pair trades that could deliver. The fallout from the Truss-Kwarteng mini budget has pressured the full range of UK asset classes. Focusing on the equity market, one important recent differentiator of stock performance has been the extent to which UK-listed companies are reliant on the domestic economy to generate sales. The firms most exposed to the UK economy have fared worst in the recent rout. But many London listings have negligible UK exposure; arguably their share prices should benefit from GBP weakness. After adjusting for geographic mix, Tellimer's Rahul Shah highlights five equity pair-trades that could deliver (an average 20% spread) through the carnage.  Get the full story →

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Analysts

Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik

OPEC+ output cut pains oil importers, Biden, anti-Russia bloc

Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse

IMF lending since the Ukraine war: Where are we?

Kieran Siney
Kieran Siney

Africa attracted a record $3.5bn in venture capital investment in H1 2022

Wajid Rizvi
Wajid Rizvi

Pakistan OMCs - Sep’22 sees flat petroleum sales; PDL seem like a tall order

Nauman Khan
Nauman Khan

2023F Pre-Budget: Towards high growth

Alejandro Padilla Santana
Alejandro Padilla Santana

Mexico: Complementary agreement to the Plan Against Inflation

Prasit Sujiravorakul
Prasit Sujiravorakul

Advanced Info Service PCL: Short-term blip of weaker 3Q22 earnings

Janet Ogabi
Janet Ogabi

Nigeria election polls show huge lead for underdog Peter Obi

Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Abdul Ghani Mianoor

Pakistan Textiles sector update

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