We think the factors behind this appreciation persist; eg faster growth in China than in the US, portfolio inflows, loose US monetary policy and the Democrats' favourable prospects, with trade tensions likely to lessen in the event of Joe Biden victory. Get the full story →

China has promised access to its Covid vaccines across emerging markets as it focuses its diplomatic efforts on countries neglected by a distracted US. In a recent trip across Southeast Asia, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi said that China will prioritise Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos for vaccines. Beyond Asia, China also has plans for countries in Africa and has pledged a US$1bn loan to Latin American and Caribbean countries to fund vaccine procurement. We will monitor whether China will be able to fulfill its grand promises in the global race, but our current research indicates vaccine pre-purchases still heavily favour developed economies. Get the full story →

Russia has driven mediation efforts until now, but the two ceasefires Moscow brokered did not hold, with Azerbaijan and Armenia accusing each other of shelling their respective civilians. Azerbaijan has the implicit backing of Turkey and Armenia has the support of Russia, but neither can afford to be dragged into a war. Get the full story →

Transactions on Mercado Pago, the digital payments platform of Argentina’s MercadoLibre, more than doubled in Q2 amid the pandemic – its CEO has said the company was inspired by how Alibaba (and Ant Group) have operated in China. The company’s market capitalisation has doubled this year alone to US$61.6bn, although this is still a far cry from Ant’s valuation. We believe the pandemic will continue to boost the revenues and valuations of the 'Baby Amazons' (EM e-commerce firms), with MercadoLibre performing well on our proprietary Cash Sustainability Index, alongside Ali Baba, Meituan and Jumia. Get the full story →

The ban on using the Chinese products by companies taking part in a 5G spectrum auction scheduled for next month, was made by the Swedish Armed Forces and the Swedish Security Service. China has now urged Sweden to reverse its ban. With the Huawei ban intensifying across the world, spurred by Trump targeting the Chinese firms as part of the ‘tech war’, it may look like Huawei is the big loser here in the short term. But we argue that in five years’ time the ban may be seen as the moment that prompted China to end its reliance on US silicon tech. Get the full story →

His attempts to repair diplomatic ties would reverse Trump’s foreign policy decisions, including as we predicted, re-joining the Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate accord, preventing US exit from WHO (and the global response to Covid) as well as renewed support for Nato. Biden said at a town-hall meeting last week that “America First has made America Alone.” While the US electorate cares little for foreign policy, emerging markets care a lot about US foreign policy, and in the event of a Biden presidency, we think his foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets. Get the full story →