The two-day meeting begins today and there is disagreement over whether to delay the previously agreed plan to raise oil output in January. Russia is thought to be in favour of postponing the output hike, but UAE has let it be known that it is opposed. Our report provides a reminder of the winners and losers in emerging markets from low oil prices. Get the full story →

Covid-19 vaccines and US$ weakness have driven a global equity and commodity rally this month. Yet emerging and frontier markets are still cheap. Technology equities – except for Alibaba and Tencent – have kept pace, shrugging off regulatory risks in the US, EU, and China. We look at all the factors that have shaped equity performance this month, and what that means for December. Get the full story →

Iran has implicated Israel in the killing of its nuclear scientist near Tehran, but stated on its official government website that it won't 'fall into the trap of linking the assassination to past nuclear negotiations'. We have argued that investors should view Iran as a rational actor, and its reaction here is entirely in line with our view that restraint from Iran is more likely than retaliation, given Biden's pledge to restart negotiations. Iran needs relief on sanctions more than revenge. Get the full story →

October’s trade balance posted a US$6,223.8mn surplus, a new historical high and surpassing all expectations. In the details, exports (4.8% m/m) gained additional momentum, while imports (1.3%) decelerated marginally. Banorte says that given sizable differences between external and domestic demand, they expect weakness in the latter through 4Q20. Get the full story →

Google’s latest strategy towards banking has once again brought up discussions around tech going head to head with traditional financial institutions. Its revamp, announced last week, include overhauling Google Pay to extend its services to digital bank accounts. For now Google will be working with banks – starting next year users will be able open and manage a bank account directly through its mobile wallet, while the accounts will be managed by Citibank and 10 other banks and credit unions. In our own consumer survey in emerging markets, we found that while fintechs and traditional financial institutions are both expected to win market share, fintech gains come mainly by tackling financial exclusion and ejecting informal channels; not by beating traditional financial institutions. Get the full story →

Chinese officials have strongly criticised India's decision to ban another 43 Chinese apps last week, further weakening the relationship between the two countries, which has been strained since border clashes earlier this year. India has now banned over 200 apps in the past few months, mostly Chinese. Our Ultimate Guide to Indian Fintech looks in detail at the prospects for the market, noting that its companies have benefited hugely from US and Chinese investment. The latter seems under threat. Get the full story →