The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was implemented on 1 January, creating the world’s second largest free trade bloc by area and third by population. Implementation will be phased over the next decade, with the World Bank estimating that AfCFTA will have the greatest impact in Cote d’Ivoire, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and Namibia. The long-term benefits for the continent could be substantial, but legacy barriers remain and in our view AfCFTA is only the first of many steps that are needed. Get the full story →

The establishment of visa-on-arrival for Israeli visitors to the UAE at the start of December provided a noticeable boost to the hospitality sector in Dubai over Christmas and New Year. But now Covid cases have trebled in the UAE and the full visa waiver programme that was due to begin in mid-February has been pushed back to July. The Covid spike that resulted from opening up to tourism represents a potentially concerning precedent, not only for Dubai but other tourist-driven emerging and frontier markets. Get the full story →

GDP expanded by 6.5% yoy in Q4 20 and 2.3% in 2020, making it one of the few countries in the world to experience positive growth for the year. According to ING Think, without fiscal and monetary stimulus, the economy would not have recovered at such a pace since external demand has been very weak. It is still too early to conclude that this is a full recovery since external demand has not yet fully recovered. Get the full story →

The impact of reduced tourism inflows as a result of Covid, and external debt obligations, have driven Kenyan FX reserves to their lowest in nearly three years. Kenya is not alone, of course. We have said in our research that for many emerging and frontier markets, this year begins with larger debt overhangs and smaller buffers than the last. Our external liquidity scorecard for 40 emerging and frontier markets can act as an early warning system for investors. Get the full story →

A phased power cut had been due to end on Sunday but will now continue on Monday. The company blamed planned maintenance, breakdowns and outage delays. We explored the Eskom problem in depth in our research, and it is clear that failure to reform the energy firm will push South Africa further towards financial crisis. Tariff hikes, staff cuts, improved bill collection, and privatisation are needed to limit the ongoing fiscal drag. Get the full story →

The 15 January decision of the office of the US Trade Representative, means the risk of punitive tariffs from the US for alleged currency manipulation has passed. This is in line with our expectations, but nonetheless a relief given some of the Trump administration's more belligerent parting shots in other areas of trade and foreign policy. Lobbying by US corporates and the Biden administration should put the risk of tariffs to bed, and Vietnam's export growth should continue. Get the full story →