Equity Analysis /

Thai: Residential Property-Unit launches dived MoM in Feb, but SDH starts jumped

  • Unit launches down MoM in Feb, but low-rise starts jump MoM

  • Take-up rate down a bit in Feb; SDH a lower proportion of presales

  • More launches in Mar; expected to be heaviest month of 1Q23

Bualuang Securities
16 March 2023

The AREA survey for Feb 2023 indicated lower MoM unit launches and take-up rates. Project starts should rise MoM in Mar. Among our ResProp coverage, we currently like SIRI (high-end leader), AP (project launch leader), and LH (hotel & rental biz leader).

Unit launches down MoM in Feb, but low-rise starts jump MoM

AREA reported launches of 4,582 units in Feb 2023, down 45% MoM, led south by the condo category. Total project launch value was Bt23bn, down 8% MoM, due to a sharply lower number of condo starts. Condo launches totaled 1,805 units, down 71% MoM (from a very high Jan number), concentrated in the Bt1-3m/unit segment. TH starts were 626 units, down 36% MoM. In contrast, SDH launches totaled 2,094 units, up 81% MoM, with far more units priced above Bt20m/unit. In Feb, LH started an SDH project, INIZIO Srinakarin (176 units, a mean price of Bt5.5m/unit), SPALI launched an SDH project, Supalai Ville Phetkasem-Phutthasakhon (166 units, Bt4.2m/unit), and LPN launched a small SDH project, Villa 168 Westgate (20 units, Bt13.2m/unit). The proportion of launches by listed players fell from 83% in Jan 2023 to 74% in Feb 2023.