It’s only mid-4Q22, but FORTH has announced a new project and a new order; we expect more by YE22. Our 2023 core profit growth forecast of 58% stands.
4Q22 is all set
We expect a Bt173m core profit for 4Q22, down by 7% YoY (high 4Q21 Enterprise Solutions revenue) and 26% QoQ (high 3Q22 EMS income). FORTH’s Enterprise Solutions backlog is Bt960m. The MEA’s smart grid project will be finished by YE22 (Bt65m remaining) and the Department of Provincial Administration’s trunked radio project is expected to be 90-95% done by YE22 (Bt297m remaining). The two projects alone cover our 2022 Enterprise Solutions revenue assumption. For 4Q22, the EMS biz will mark comparable revenue as for 1Q22 and 2Q22. TAO BIN’s swift growth will continue. FORTH is less bullish than FSMART, which expects close to 6,000 TAO BIN kiosks to be operating by YE22; FORTH targets 5,300-5,400 kiosks by YE22. But even under that scenario, the downside to our 2022 core profit forecast is less than 1%.