Peru election is too tight to call but a fragmented Congress awaits the winner

  • Rightist Fujimori leads Leftist Castillo 52.9% to 47.1% after 42% of votes officially counted in Presidential run-off
  • But partial count is skewed to Fujimori's urban strongholds; IPSOS's exit poll favoured Castillo 50.2% to Fujimori 49.8%
  • Unchanged fact is that neither will control fragmented Congress where Fujimori's party has 18% share and Castillo's 28%
Peru election is too tight to call but a fragmented Congress awaits the winner

So far, no clear winner is emerging from the presidential run-off vote in Peru (the producer of 12% of the world's copper). Rightist Keiko Fujimori leads leftist Pedro Castillo 52.9% to 47.1% with 42% of votes officially counted by election authority ONPE.

However, the partial count is skewed to urban areas where Fujimori's support is expected to be stronger and the "fast count" (exit poll) from independent polling agency IPSOS favoured Castillo, with 50.2% to Fujimori's 49.8%.

Both candidates have publicly, at least, pledged to respect the official final results.

One fact remains unchanged: neither candidate will control a highly fragmented Congress with 18% and 28% share of seats for the parties led by Fujimori and Castillo, respectively, and that portends a continuation of dysfunctional politics whoever is ultimately declared the winner.

Peru equities and bonds have rallied in recent days as Fujimori has closed the gap in opinion polls and as Castillo's newly appointed economic advisor, Pedro Francke, a former economist at the World Bank and Peru central bank, has publicly renounced mining nationalisation, price controls, and currency controls (ie all of the consensus worries after Castillo's first-round win in April).

Peru Congress is fragmented. Right and centre leaning parties dominate but have a poor history of coordination.

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