We have a BUY call, premised on strong business growth (even though our model points to flattish YoY earnings for 2021), supported by ongoing sales-point expansion (to 5,700 locations by YE21 and 6,100 locations by YE22). Lending growth should continue through 2022. We now assume that NIM will fatten from 16.6% in 2021 to 17.1% next year. Therefore, our model points to 2022 earnings jumping 24% YoY. There could be scope for upside to our 2021 and 2022 profit forecasts if MTC were to expand sales points faster than we currently assume (the firm had 5,665 sales points at end-Sep, equal to 99% of our YE21 assumption).
Earnings were below our estimate
MTC posted a 3Q21 bottom-line of Bt1.2bn, down by 10.4% YoY and 5.5% QoQ. The result was 15% below our estimate and 10% shy of the Bloomberg consensus. Pre-provision operating profit came to Bt1.7bn, up 4% YoY but down 2% QoQ. 9M21 earnings comprise 68.8% of our old full-year forecast of Bt5.6bn.