Earnings Report /

Kerry Express (Thailand): Deeper loss than expected

  • Deep miss

  • KEX reported 4Q21 red ink of Bt606m

  • Revenue increased 11% YoY

Bualuang Securities
15 February 2022

Despite the weak 2022 outlook, KEX’s current market capitalization (about Bt41bn) implies only a 33% premium over the recent implied market value of its closest apples-to-apples competitor—Flash Express (estimated at Bt31bn)—while it has zero debt on its balance sheet. And if KEX could take more market share from its competitors, they may have trouble raising further capital. Under that scenario, KEX would emerge from the price war as the last man standing. Hence, we see only limited downside risk to the stock price, while there’s still huge scope for upside. Our HOLD rating stands.

Deep miss

KEX reported 4Q21 red ink of Bt606m, a YoY and QoQ reversal from earnings. That number represented a much deeper loss than our estimate, due to much lower RPP than assumed.