We expect the Pink and Yellow lines to mark losses during the starting periods of their respective operations. But BTS’s earnings will rise fast in 2024 onward. Expanding mass-transit usage and ad spending and the opening of the tender for the Orange Line should generate positive market sentiment toward stock. As such, our BUY call stands.
Beat our estimates
BTS reported a 4Q21 (Jan-Mar 2022) net profit of Bt812m, down by 52% YoY and 23% QoQ. The bottom-line was 51% ahead of our estimate (greater extra gains and a lower cost-of-sales than assumed) and 27% above the consensus. Stripping out extra items, the core number would be Bt620m, up 35% YoY but down 41% QoQ. Core profit beat our estimate by 15% (a lower cost-of-sales than assumed), but was in line with the consensus.
Note that BTS will pay a 2H21 dividend of Bt0.16/share (XD Aug 3, payment Aug 23), implying a simple yield of 1.8%.