Russian President Vladimir Putin has nominated Mikhail Mishustin as the Prime Minister. Mishustin is 54 years old and has been the head of the Russian Tax Service since 2010. We think that given his background, he is likely to be a technical Prime Minister and our base scenario is that other cabinet members are likely to keep their positions.
However, the nomination does not shed light on the 2024 transition. One option is that President Putin intends to keep the cabinet as a technical tool while all important decisions will later be taken at the Security Council level. Or, he will see the cabinet as a platform for his potential successor, which he will introduce/select later.
For the local market, this development means increased complexity in the political system, which sooner or later should result in a higher political risk premium.
See our latest reports: Russian government resigns as Putin proposes changes
Russia: Key takeaways from Putin's Presidential address, government resignation
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