US unilaterally breaks deal; with oil at US$75 not a shock but uncertainty ahead. The US is re-imposing sanctions, effectively withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal. Saudi, Israel and the UAE have expressed support. France, Germany and UK have expressed regret and seek to remain in the deal. Iran says it is willing to stay within the original framework if the remaining parties (EU3, Russia, China) are too. This would have been much more shocking a year ago (when oil was US$50) than now (with oil at US$75). However, there are still major uncertainties ahead (i.e. oil price could rise further). The outlook for Rouhani’s “pragmatic conservative” camp in Iran and regional security are the most immediate uncertainties, rather than the Iranian regime itself.