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IMF 2019 Annual Meetings – Trip report

    Stuart Culverhouse
    Stuart Culverhouse

    Chief Economist & Head of Fixed Income Research

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    Christopher Dielmann CFA
    Christopher Dielmann CFA

    Director, Macroeconomic & Sovereign Research

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    Tellimer Research
    5 November 2019
    Published byTellimer Research

    We attended the October 2019 Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, where we met with IMF mission chiefs, their teams, and other senior officials from the IMF and the official sector. We wish to thank all our hosts for their time and for the constructive and open nature of discussions, which were valuable to us and to our clients attending these meetings.

    This report is the opportunity to relate some of the points that came out of those meetings and to update our views on selected sovereigns. 

    Specifically, we cover here 15 countries and, following our meetings in DC, we have made six changes altogether, with five changes to our recommendations (Ghana, Iraq, Kenya, Mongolia, and Nigeria), and one initiation of view, namely Cote d’Ivoire. 

    We stress the views in this report are our own and not necessarily those of IMF staff or country officials; they reflect our interpretation of the issues discussed in our respective meetings.

    Table 1: Our Sovereign Views
    Country PreviousNow

    Benin 26s 

    Hold

    Hold

    Cote d’Ivoire 28s

    n/a

    Hold

    Ecuador 28s

    Buy

    Buy

    Egypt 28s

    Hold

    Hold

    Ghana 29s

    Buy

    Hold

    Iraq 28s

    Hold

    Buy

    Kenya 28s

    Buy

    Hold

    Mongolia 24s

    Hold

    Sell

    Mozambique 31s

    Hold

    Hold

    Nigeria 30s

    Buy

    Hold

    Pakistan 27s

    Hold

    Hold

    REPCON 29s

    Hold

    Hold

    Senegal 48s

    Buy

    Buy

    Suriname 26s

    Hold

    Hold

    Ukraine 28s

    Buy

    Buy

     (changes in view are in bold)
    Source: Tellimer Research