EGYPT: Army key to reform and further upside, still positive

Army is key to transition from recovery to reform – Egypt’s recovery, driven by a return to orthodox economic policy (made more credible by IMF conditionality) and balance of payments improvements (multilateral and private capital inflow, tourism recovery, gas production growth) is increasingly well understood. Recovery needs to transition to structural reform, which drives up sustainable growth, in order to drive the rally further. At its core, this requires the Army to reduce barriers to entry for the private sector in the hope that overall growth outweighs greater competition. While the Army is unquestionably more powerful, in political terms, in the present government than in previous iterations, this will not dissuade it from loosening its grip on commercial opportunities. We argue, top-down, that this is likely, pointing to evidence already consistent with this, and that, consequently there is plenty more to go for, in the face of bottom-up analyst concerns on stretched valuations and stressed operating outlook.