- Cote d’Ivoire has had a turbulent, and often violent, past, but after the conflict that followed the 2010-11 political crisis, President Ouattara has overseen a period of greater stability. The next presidential election in 2020, in which Ouattara cannot stand because of term limits, will be a key test of the country’s political maturity.
- Cote d’Ivoire’s economy is mainly based on primary products. It is the world’s largest cocoa producer, consistently producing 40% of global output, while oil has also emerged as a significant export, with production running at c60,000 barrels per day. Economic recovery after the political crisis and debt relief helped the country grow by an average of 8.9% over 2012-17, the fourth-fastest rate in the world (on WEO figures). But it still ranks low on the Doing Business survey (139th in 2018 out of 190).
- Cote d’Ivoire’s long history of sovereign default, on both its official and commercial debt, seemingly looks behind it. This included most recently 2010-11 when it missed coupon payments on its restructured London Club debt. It is now a post-HIPC country, after reaching completion point in 2012, and returned to the international capital markets soon after, with gross bond issuance over 2014-18 of US$5.8bn. It has remained current on is external debt ever since. Sovereign eurobonds now account for 60% of public external debt, while total public debt has increased from 34% in 2012 to 46% of GDP in 2017.
| Economic data | Avg* | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017e | 2018f | 2019f |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real GDP growth | 4.7 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
Inflation (annual average) | 2.2 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Current account (% of GDP) | 1.8 | 1.4 | -0.6 | -1.1 | -4.6 | -4.6 | -4.2 |
Reserves (US$bn, end-period)** | - | 13.0 | 12.4 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 17.6~ | - |
Reserves/imports (months)*** | - | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | - | - |
Overall fiscal balance (% of GDP)# | -2.2 | -2.2 | -2.8 | -3.9 | -4.2 | -3.8 | -3.0 |
Currency (ticker) | Member of the CFA Franc Zone (XOF) | ||||||
FX regime | The CFA franc is pegged against the euro at a rate of CFAF655.957 per euro. The CFA franc floats freely against other currencies. | ||||||
Key exports | Cocoa and oil historically two main exports, but relative shares have shifted since 2012, with decline in oil and increase in cocoa. Oil was main export over most of 2006-12; cocoa has replaced it since then. Five products (cocoa, petroleum, cashew nuts, gold, rubber) make up three-quarters of goods’ exports (2016 data): cocoa (43%), petroleum (13.5%), cashews (8%), gold (7.5%) and rubber (5%). Goods’ exports in 2016 were US$11bn. |
Source: IMF WEO Database, IMF country reports, Haver, Bloomberg, OEC, Exotix. *10-year average to 2016 unless otherwise stated. **WAEMU gross official reserves from IMF reports. ~Latest figure, April 2018. ***Months of WAEMU imports of GNFS from IMF reports. #General government net lending (IMF WEO).