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Strategy Note /
United Arab Emirates
UAE and Dubai: Place your bets? Licensed gambling window opens in Ras Al Khaimah
Hasnain Malik
26 January 2022
Sovereign Analysis / El Salvador
El Salvador: Few surprises from IMF Article IV as bonds continue to struggle
Sovereign Analysis /
Pakistan
Pakistan: Underperformance unjustified, but risks remain high
Patrick Curran
25 January 2022
Equity Analysis /
South Korea
Coupang: Still shines bright but we lower our target price in light of Nasdaq sell-off
Nirgunan Tiruchelvam
26 January 2022
Strategy Note /
Global
Taiwan foreign equity outflows amid China friction but index weight still rising
Hasnain Malik
25 January 2022
Global
Macro Analysis /
Global

Asia Morning Bytes

Global:There have been big market moves overnight following the US FOMC’s indication that they would be “nimble” with rates and a strong hint for March hike. Equities finished flat after a very strong start totally reversed. Flat is not a bad outcome...

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
27 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

FOMC Goes With Unemployment Rate While This Huge Number Happens To Far More Relevant Economic Data

The first time I can consciously remember using the term landmine was probably here in February 2019. By February 2019, Census had revised – downward, of course – its initial estimates for retail sales during the all-important consumer climax which t...

Alhambra Investments
Alhambra Investments  @ Alhambra Investments
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Top 5 insights for improving family-school collaboration during COVID and beyond

As the omicron variant spreads across the world, families and schools are grappling with how to continue their children’s education. Karen Mapp, an expert on family-school collaboration at Harvard University explains, “I’m seeing quite a few school d...

Brookings
Brookings  @ Brookings
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

How well is European banking supervision working in practice?

How well is European banking supervision working in practice? Following up on a past stocktaking with its top official Andrea Enria (in November 2020), this session will consider European banking supervision from the bottom up and debate its achievem...

Peterson Institute for International Economics
Peterson Institute for International Economics  @ Peterson Institute for International Economics
26 January 2022
Earnings Report /
Mexico

Grupo Cementos de Chihuahua: GCC, Quarterly Report 4Q21: 2022 guidance offsets pressures in 4Q21

Strong demand and favorable pricing environment offset by higher expenses. Prices were better in local currency terms, and in Mexico also in dollar terms. On the other hand, EBITDA remained stable, with the margin decreasing 3.4pp y/y to 31.5%, below...

Banorte
Banorte  @ Banorte
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

The Economic Costs of Closed Minds

While there are exceptions, hyper-nationalism is usually disastrous for an economy in the long run. NEW YORK – This year began amid widespread despondency about the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic and the struggling global economy, as well as premonition...

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Investment in science and technology is key to an African economic boom

The African continent represents 20 percent of the earth’s surface and is home to 1.3 billion people—likely reaching 2.53 billion people by 2050. Yet, despite these riches, it produces only 3 percent of global GDP, accounts for less than 3 percent of...

Brookings
Brookings  @ Brookings
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

The Mismanagement of Inflation Expectations

The leading central banks appear to have lost control of consumers’ inflation expectations, and the costs could be high. EDINBURGH – Central bankers are not required to be great wordsmiths. Montagu Norman, the governor of the Bank of England from 192...

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
26 January 2022
Macro Analysis /
Global

Opaque and ill-defined: the problems with Europe’s IPCEI subsidy framework

As European industrial policy evolves, state aid is acquiring a new role in the pursuit of the European Union’s green and supply-chain sustainability goals. A minor revision in November 2021 failed to address any of the major flaws of IPCEI. IPCEIs a...

Bruegel
Bruegel  @ Bruegel
26 January 2022
Earnings Report /
Egypt

Egyptian Gulf Bank: Positive 2021 supported by top-line, provisions reversals and efficiency

EGBE 4Q21 standalone net profit pre-minority interest and appropriations recorded EGP189 million (+9% q/q, +19% y/y), bringing 2021 net income to EGP696 million (+11% y/y), which is 7% higher than our bottom-line estimate of EGP653 million. Customer ...

Al Ahly Pharos Securities Brokerage
Al Ahly Pharos Securities Brokerage  @ Al Ahly Pharos Securities Brokerage
26 January 2022
Inform your investment strategy with Tellimer Indices and Data
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This morning's briefing

Five EM banks for the pivot from growth to value. A global transition from growth to value stocks is currently playing out. In emerging markets, this upheaval has been underway for longer and is more severe, with China’s tech woes a key contributor. We think emerging market banks could be key beneficiaries of this transition in investor preferences. The sector substantially underperformed at the beginning of the Covid pandemic, reflecting a combination of broader economic woes and regulatory changes that forced banks to offer forbearance to struggling borrowers and restricted their ability to reward investors with dividends. Although half of this underperformance has since been recovered, there is still substantial catch-up potential. In our new report, we highlight five EM banks that could benefit from investors' increasing preference for value stocks. Get the full story →
Airtel Uganda listing can be transformative for Uganda's stock market. Airtel Uganda has announced plans to list on the Uganda Stock Exchange, following in the footsteps of MTN Uganda's IPO in December 2021. Three months ago, before MTN Uganda's listing, the bourse had just 17 listed stocks. The addition of Airtel Uganda to the USE will provide more options for both local and foreign investors, and shares in other listed companies such as Stanbic Uganda could benefit from the increased spotlight and higher trading volumes. As for Airtel Uganda, its parent company Airtel Africa is transitioning into an asset-lite business model, selling off towers across the continent, including last week's US$176mn Tanzania tower sales deal. It also plans to separately list its mobile money arm, Airtel Mobile Commerce. In her report, Ayobami Omole look at the transformative power of previous telco listings in Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya, and the prospects for Airtel Uganda's IPO. Get the full story →
US foreign policy could get very bad very quickly. To his supporters’ dismay, Joe Biden’s foreign policy has been limited, reactive and appears likely to get worse. The current foreign policy challenge is countering Russian aggression in Ukraine, where the US has not had an ambassador since 2019, and where the families of US (and UK) diplomatic staff are now being advised to leave. Paul Domjan argues that the US president's belief that energy interdependence will restrain Russia – because Russia relies on Europe to buy its gas just as Europe relies on Russia to supply it – is fallacious. Get the full story →
India's ruling BJP well placed for victory in Uttar Pradesh and nationally. The latest "Mood of the Nation" survey from India Today, published on 20 January, suggests that the ruling BJP-led coalition under PM Modi remains in pole position for both the state election in Uttar Pradesh (10 February to 10 March) and the general election, due before 2024. PM Modi has not delivered the scale of economic reform some hoped for, and the repeal of agricultural reforms clearly signals his focus has shifted from reform to re-election. But his coalition still represents a better probability of reform than the fragmented opposition and, for investors, this outweighs the undoubtedly widening social fractures under the BJP. Therefore, this data is positive for investors.  Get the full story →
Lithium's environmental paradox. Lithium is a key commodity for the global transition to net-zero carbon emissions, because of its use in rechargeable batteries (eg electric vehicles). But its extraction via ore mining or evaporation of underground saltwater causes irreparable local environmental damage. Lithium supply is currently dominated by Australia, Argentina, Chile, and China, but there are many others with as yet untapped reserves, eg Bolivia and, much lower down the scale, Serbia. Rapid demand growth is driving lithium commodity prices higher and underpinning the investment case in new projects. Yet last week, Serbia's government announced a halt to Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium project. This was set to become Europe's largest lithium mine, with US$2.4bn of capex and 58,000 metric tonnes per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate after full ramp-up in 2029. Hasnain Malik has more on the intertwining of Serbian politics and global demand for lithium. Get the full story →
Peering into Putin's mind. NATO allies are moving military equipment, naval ships and personnel towards Eastern Europe as they try to work out Vladimir Putin's next move regarding Ukraine. Tellimer's Hasnain Malik thinks that Russia cannot afford a major conflict and that, ultimately, the end-point will be de-escalation. But, with an incentive for the weaker protagonist, Russia, to appear unpredictable, the bumpy ride for geopolitical risk could continue for some time yet. Get the full story →

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Analysts

Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik

UAE and Dubai: Place your bets? Licensed gambling window opens in Ras Al Khaimah

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Thailand:Bank - Aggregate 4Q21 profit in line! Post-COVID growth phase starting…

Marina William
Marina William

Cairo Investment and Real Estate Development: Management webinar key takeaways

Kieran Siney
Kieran Siney

Latam Daily: Regional growth outlook under pressure

Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran

Pakistan: Underperformance unjustified, but risks remain high

Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse

El Salvador: Few surprises from IMF Article IV as bonds continue to struggle

Mariam Wael
Mariam Wael

RACC: Meet the management webinar key takeaways

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Mexico: Retail sales extend gains in November despite price headwinds

Prasit Sujiravorakul
Prasit Sujiravorakul

Khon Kaen Sugar Industry PCL: Sustained high sugar price plus bigger volume leads to GM expansion

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