Belize Superbond: RIP

Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research

3 December 2021

Sovereign Analysis /

Belize

This evening's briefing

Didi plans to de-list from the US. Chinese ride-hailing firm Didi, which was heavily struck by China's tech crackdown, has announced plans to delist from the New York Stock Exchange. It will instead pursue a domestic listing. Read more about our take on the tech crackdown here. Get the full story →

Grab falls sharply after Nasdaq debut. Singapore-based 'super-app' Grab has debuted on Nasdaq after completion of its record $US40bn merger with Altimeter Growth Corp, the biggest SPAC deal yet. Shares opened sharply up at US$13.06 on Thursday, but declined precipitously to finish the day at US$8.75, valuing the company at US$34.6bn. Read our in-depth research on the ride-hailing, food delivery and financial services app here. Get the full story →

Egypt is the latest country to allow SPACs. The country's Financial Regulatory Authority officially published its framework for Special Purpose Acquisition Companies yesterday. SPACs surged in popularity in the first quarter of 2021 but were dominated by US listings. We said earlier this week that as other financial centres such as Dubai and Singapore put in place their own frameworks there will be more emerging market SPACs in future. Get the full story →

Omicron – the emerging markets that are best prepared for the new Covid variant. Omicron has sparked concern over how fast it might be transmitted, the level of protection from current vaccines as well as from prior infection, and the re-imposition of lockdowns and travel restrictions. But the behaviour of markets to the initial Covid outbreak (globally) and to the emergence of the Delta variant (eg in India) suggests any sell-off is temporary. Differences between Omicron today and Delta in Q1 2021 include: 1) higher vaccination and prior infection; but 2) less space for stimulus. See our full report for our assessment of the emerging markets best prepared to face Omicron, based on vaccination, prior infection, lockdowns, real interest rates, and fiscal deficits. Get the full story →

The EM banks that can best hedge investors' currency risk. The USD index has risen by more than 5% so far this year. Within emerging markets, Latin America has been hard-hit, with currencies in Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru all down over 10%. Eastern Europe (notably Poland, Hungary and Romania) has also suffered. But spare a thought for the Turkish lira, losing more than one-third of its value, although it can be argued that much of this is self-inflicted. With the Fed slowing its bond-buying activity, and commentators looking for US interest rates to rise, currency risk could play a key role in emerging market equity performance over the coming months. We examine the currency mismatch positions of leading emerging market banks and highlight those names that could be used by equity investors to hedge currency risk. Banks in Hungary, Thailand and Nigeria scan well. Get the full story →

Tellimer's global investment themes for 2022. This year has seen the drivers of the post-Covid world begin to emerge. We have identified 11 major trends that will shape investing over the next 12 months, and beyond. We divide our 2022 Global Themes into four categories: (1) Inflation and rising rates; (2) Ethical investing; (3) Blockchain and crypto; (4) Technological innovations to change industries. Click here to access the full report. Get the full story →

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Sovereign Analysis /

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Belize Superbond: RIP

The government of Belize announced last month (5 November) that it had redeemed the much-maligned Superbond (the 4.9375% 2034s), after securing the necessary financing to complete a cash tender offer for the bond. TNC and DFC announced financial clos...

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US met forecasts for job growth in 2021 amid unexpected high labor demand and low labor supply

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US economy held back by a lack of willing workers

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Multilateralism's Secret Sauce

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Macro Analysis /

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