The Fed shot down last week’s expectations of a pause, but recession risks raise the odds of a dovish pivot by Q4 22. We anticipate more near-term US inflation upside, making it difficult for the Fed to pivot before H2 23. More than ever, EMs are cau...

BAFL remains a top banking play on strong margin expansion and balance sheet growth. CY23-27f EPS estimates raised by 12%, with a revised TP of PKR50/sh offering a 1yr return of 84%. ROE of 22% in CY23/24f stacks up well against CY23f P/B of 0.4x, P/...

US real GDP growth and US stock market returns were positively correlated since 1900. However, the correlation was not consistent and even turned negative. The evidence of this relationship from other countries is mixed.

The fallout continues from Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. Credit Suisse, First Republic are receiving liquidity support. EM bank shares have so far proven more resilient than in DM. We flag the markets most exposed to any sectoral sell-off. Banks ar...

We asked 900 consumers to highlight where EM fintechs needed to improve the most for them to engage. Top responses: the sign-up process, convenience, transaction execution, platform design and customer education. In Indonesia and Kenya trust is a key...

Emerging markets banks have underperformed in recent days but investors are not yet discriminating for duration risk. We highlight the EM banks whose capital is most exposed to any downward revaluation of their investment portfolios. Chilean and Braz...