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Sovereign Analysis / Ukraine

Ukraine: Central bank independence under threat

We think the situation at the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is serious. The circumstances around the recent resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor Yakiv Smolii on 1 July, together with other events, reveal a growing threat to the independenc...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 13 July 2020
Weekend Reading / Global

Wirecard saga: EMs don’t have a monopoly on risk, corruption and poor oversight

For the past two decades, I have been on a mission to convince investors that they should invest in responsible EMs and not assume that the fact that a country is developed means that it is low risk. Suffice to say, it has been an uphill battle. I’ve...
Tellimer Research Paul Domjan
Paul Domjan @ Tellimer Research 11 July 2020
Sovereign Analysis / Lebanon

Lebanon: At the precipice as leaders pass the buck

Since officially entering default on 23 March (after announcing on 8 March the intention to not pay the 9 March maturity), Lebanon’s economic and political crisis has spiralled out of control. While protests died down in March amid a Covid-related lo...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 9 July 2020
Flash Report / Nigeria

Nigeria: Official NGN devaluation is a positive baby step but more is needed

The official NGN exchange rate weakened c5.8% from NGN360/US$ to NGN381/US$ on Tuesday, as reported by FMDQ. This is a positive step towards unifying the official and Investors’ & Exporters’ (I&E) exchange rates, with the latter currently tra...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 9 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

LatAm equity strategy: Structural weakness plus commodity price headwind

LatAm often displays a degree of exceptionalism compared to peers in EM.This is because of its proximity to the US, which means: 1) corporate management are historically more accessible to the largest concentration of foreign institutional investors;...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 8 July 2020
Sovereign Analysis / Ecuador

Ecuador: Government announces agreement in principle on bond restructuring

The government yesterday announced that it had reached an agreement in principle (AIP) with a group of major creditors (the Ad Hoc Group) on restructuring terms for its international bonds (see press release). It follows the consent solicitation that...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 7 July 2020
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