Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...

The story of James Howells is remarkable. All this institutional interest and enthusiasm for Bitcoin price appreciation means that Bitcoin, and perhaps other cryptocurrencies, are likely to have a place in the financial system now and into the future...

Already in 2020, we have seen a large number of sovereign defaults, notably in Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, Lebanon, Suriname and Zambia. Meanwhile, Bahrain (+9ppt to 137%), Brazil (+2ppt to 104%) and South Africa (+6ppt to 85%) see more modest increa...

Ukraine (B3/B/B), on which we have a Hold, is a trade to watch next year as investors await progress (or otherwise) on the stalled IMF programme review. Ukraine – a high-beta name – has been among the biggest beneficiaries of the year-end rally, with...

It’s a sit up and pay attention moment when emerging markets run a collective fiscal deficit of some 10% of GDP. The year ahead should see the US dollar remain on a weakening trend, a circumstance that cushions emerging market economies in many ways....

Our Top 5 picks for 2021 are Buys on Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Sri Lanka and Egypt T-bills. Seven other trades to watch – Ecuador, Pakistan, Ukraine, Turkish local & credit, other HY, local currency. Global tailwinds are expected to continue into...