It is now reasonably well known that the IMF’s programme review is delayed. It is no secret the IMF is concerned about threats to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) independence following the resignation of Governor Smoliy in July and the circumsta...

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...

If remittances drop 20% who is exposed in emerging and frontier markets?

Real interest rates (policy rate minus inflation) is one indicator of firepower (rate cuts) available to central banks. High real interest rates (above +2%) in the following countries (with GCC and Hong Kong US$ FX peg regimes excluded)......Indonesi...

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance dropped to US$8.2bn in July, a fall of 60% compared to June, bringing total issuance YTD to US$131.7bn, based on our calculations using data from Bond Radar. For the year so far, 70% of issuance has been IG an...

We reiterate Hold across the curve with eurobonds accurately pricing government’s proposals, but downside risks abound. Read the full report here. Today, Ukraine’s parliament approved President Zelensky’s nomination for NBU governor, Mr Kyrylo Shevch...