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Sovereign Analysis / Ukraine

Ukraine: Another IMF review, another delay

It is now reasonably well known that the IMF’s programme review is delayed. It is no secret the IMF is concerned about threats to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) independence following the resignation of Governor Smoliy in July and the circumsta...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 21 October 2020
Ukraine: Another IMF review, another delay – notes from virtual meetings
Ukraine: Another IMF review, another delay – notes from virtual meetings
Macro Analysis / Global

IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...
ING Think
ING Think 15 October 2020
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets
Strategy Note / Global

Remittances: Better than feared so far (in two charts)

If remittances drop 20% who is exposed in emerging and frontier markets?
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 17 September 2020
Remittances: Better than feared so far (in two charts)
Remittances: Better than feared so far (in two charts)
Strategy Note / Global

EM central bank firepower (in one chart)

Real interest rates (policy rate minus inflation) is one indicator of firepower (rate cuts) available to central banks. High real interest rates (above +2%) in the following countries (with GCC and Hong Kong US$ FX peg regimes excluded)......Indonesi...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 September 2020
EM central bank firepower (in one chart)
EM central bank firepower (in one chart)
Macro Analysis / Global

Emerging Market sovereign bond issuance falls by 60% in July

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance dropped to US$8.2bn in July, a fall of 60% compared to June, bringing total issuance YTD to US$131.7bn, based on our calculations using data from Bond Radar. For the year so far, 70% of issuance has been IG an...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 3 August 2020
Emerging Market sovereign bond issuance falls by 60% in July
Emerging Market sovereign bond issuance falls by 60% in July
Weekly Credit Risk Monitor / Global

Lebanon on the edge, Ukraine central bank crisis and Ecuador's alternative plan

We reiterate Hold across the curve with eurobonds accurately pricing government’s proposals, but downside risks abound. Read the full report here. Today, Ukraine’s parliament approved President Zelensky’s nomination for NBU governor, Mr Kyrylo Shevch...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 16 July 2020
Lebanon on the edge, Ukraine central bank crisis and Ecuador's alternative plan
Lebanon on the edge, Ukraine central bank crisis and Ecuador's alternative plan