CBRT kept the policy rate 17% yesterday. The statements were very strong, positive and likely to help regain of the confidence in the market. Today a slightly negative opening in the market can be expected in line with global markets.

Today the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to hold its one-week repo rate at 17%, in line with Bloomberg consensus. After such aggressive action at the last two MPC meetings (see here and here), we think the reaction is appropriate. Turke...

Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...

Profit taking mood is in the air as there is not much new inflow from international investors despite the 2 big conferences this week (there were US$248mn net inflows to equities last week). The rally of the market has reached 49% in dollar terms sin...

Global equity rally continues as risk on mode is in full swing. Garanti BBVA shared its operating plan guidance for FY21 that targets mid-teens ROAE with a focus on moderate lending and costs remain under control. 4) Steep margin tightening: NIM (swa...

Already in 2020, we have seen a large number of sovereign defaults, notably in Argentina, Belize, Ecuador, Lebanon, Suriname and Zambia. Meanwhile, Bahrain (+9ppt to 137%), Brazil (+2ppt to 104%) and South Africa (+6ppt to 85%) see more modest increa...