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Economics Chartbook - Central banks’ inflation fight raises recession odds (4Q22)

Global: The growth outlook is deteriorating. After likely subdued growth of 2.7% this year, we forecast global GDP rising by only 1.9% next year. The weakening reflects tighter financial conditions, surging energy bills in Europe and reduced economic...
UniCredit Marco
Marco Valli @ UniCredit 28 September 2022

CEE Quarterly - Testing resilience ahead of the winter (4Q22)

Europe is heading into a difficult winter, but we believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, even if Russia halts all exports of natural gas to Europe. We expect a technical recession in 4Q21-1Q23 caused by high energy prices, circumspect consumers...
UniCredit Elia
Elia Lattuga @ UniCredit 28 September 2022

Italy's shift right: Impact on European EM (Russia, Hungary, Greece, Turkey)

Victory for rightist, anti-EU coalition of Meloni, albeit with under-performance by more radical partner Salvini. Within European EM, potentially positive for Hungary, Russia, Turkey and negative for Greece, Morocco, Tunisia, Ukraine. The more Meloni...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 26 September 2022
Italy's shift right: Impact on European EM (Russia, Hungary, Greece, Turkey)
Italy's shift right: Impact on European EM (Russia, Hungary, Greece, Turkey)

Turkey: Another reckless rate cut

CBRT cut its policy rate by 100bps to 12% against expectations for an unchanged stance, bringing the real rate to -68%. Limited market reaction as underlying policy stance is now driven by unorthodox 'liraisation' and credit policies. Policy reversal...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 23 September 2022
Turkey: Another reckless rate cut
Turkey: Another reckless rate cut

Turkey: Global markets are again in the red

BIST 100 continue to decouple from the world and in a trial to stabilise around these levels. CBT cut rates by 100 bp yesterday which did not affect the markets much. Daily resistance levels are at 3,330 3,350.
ATA Invest Batuhan
Batuhan Ozsahin @ ATA Invest 23 September 2022

EEMEA Country Note - Turkey: economic interventionism reaches unprecedented levels

The government is preparing to implement another round of populist measures ahead of the general election next year. Wary of the risk of a currency shock, the authorities seem to be pacing the expansionary policies for now, but this could change arou...
UniCredit Gökçe
Gökçe Çelik @ UniCredit 21 September 2022