We present our top strategy picks and provide a brief description of the motivation of each one. Buy on Ethiopia 6.625% 2024, which we’ve upgraded from Hold. Despite the anticipated arrival of LNG revenues later in the decade, fiscal consolidation wi...

Our Top 5 picks for 2021 are Buys on Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Sri Lanka and Egypt T-bills. Seven other trades to watch – Ecuador, Pakistan, Ukraine, Turkish local & credit, other HY, local currency. Global tailwinds are expected to continue into...

We forecast ASPI to reach 7,400-7,600 in 2021, with local investors continuing to carry the mantle. Emerging markets may be ready for prime time in 2021; Sri Lanka will see latent flows compared with peers due to risks. Sector Pick: We see the strong...

As the reality of COVID-19 took form in March, we approached our analysis from a probability-based angle. From 2021 and beyond, we factor in growth above 5.0%. Our main concerns are; 1) ~USD 4.9bn repayments in 2021 and ~USD 4.5bn/year until 2023, 2)...

We've seen a record number of sovereign defaults on bonded (external) debt this year according to our records, at least in terms of recent history, although it was becoming obvious we were heading for a record even by the middle of the year. Second,...

Today, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is also the finance minister, presented Sri Lanka’s 2021 budget. Lifting up the hood, revenue is expected to decline from 12.6% to 9.5% of GDP in 2020, while expenditure is expected to decline from 22.2% t...