In recent weeks, we have written that Sri Lanka’s external and fiscal balances have been building to unsustainable levels (see here and here, as well as related reading). However, as we have previously highlighted, it is unclear if all these flows wi...

The Sri Lankan Ministry of Finance released its Mid-Year Fiscal Position Report 2021 yesterday. Sri Lanka’s overly optimistic revenue projections are largely to blame. However, the composition has deteriorated with recurrent spending rising 9% yoy (-...

Sri Lankan eurobonds have had a difficult week, dropping c3.5-5.3pts across the curve (excluding the 21s) so far this week at the time of writing and c5-7.1pts over the past two weeks (with the 23s and 24s hardest hit, and less so as you move further...

I can attest to the unpleasant experience of spending 11 nights in a UK government quarantine hotel. It remains to be seen whether there is a similar spike in infections as seen in Dubai (which subsequently moderated). Over 10% of GDP: Barbados, Croa...

We maintain our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation-based target price at LKR 325/share. Revenues came in at LKR 30.0bn for the quarter, down 2.2% QoQ (+6.6% YoY). Looking ahead, we expect strong revenue growth in FY22E supported by 1) a normalising co...

We maintain our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation-based target price for HHL at LKR 140.00/share. In FY22E, we expect the local pharma distribution and FMCG business to drive earnings, albeit with some impact on margins due to FX depreciation. Segmen...