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CEE Quarterly: Weathering geopolitical and economic shocks

We forecast a technical recession throughout CEE over the winter due to falling purchasing power and foreign demand, tighter financial conditions and lower fiscal spending. A rebound is likely from 2H23 onwards if the eurozone economy recovers as wel...
UniCredit Elia
Elia Lattuga @ UniCredit 10 January 2023

Serbia: 2023 budget foresees gradual reduction of deficit despite energy crisis

Draft budget envisages wage and pension hikes, lower tax burden on wages, funds to mitigate energy crisis. GDP growth projected at 2.5%, CPI inflation - at 11.1%, CA deficit - 8.5% of GDP. New SBA arrangement with IMF to help Serbia meet targets, imp...
EmergingMarketWatch Metodi
Metodi Tzanov @ EmergingMarketWatch 24 November 2022

EEMEA Macro Flash - Serbia: monetary tightening is not over

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) increased the policy rate by 50bp to 4.00% today, in line with our expectations (consensus: +25bp). With inflation likely to remain high and with monetary policy tightening by the ECB and the Fed, we expect the NBS t...
UniCredit Mauro Giorgio
Mauro Giorgio Marrano @ UniCredit 6 October 2022

CEE Quarterly - Testing resilience ahead of the winter (4Q22)

Europe is heading into a difficult winter, but we believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, even if Russia halts all exports of natural gas to Europe. We expect a technical recession in 4Q21-1Q23 caused by high energy prices, circumspect consumers...
UniCredit Elia
Elia Lattuga @ UniCredit 28 September 2022

Data Comment - Serbia: inflation might be approaching a peak

Inflation increased from 12.8% yoy to 13.2% in August, broadly in line with expectations (13.3%) and driven by food (0.17pp), core (0.18pp) and energy inflation (0.06pp). The rise in energy inflation was driven by a hike in regulated gas prices (9%)....
UniCredit Mauro Giorgio
Mauro Giorgio Marrano @ UniCredit 12 September 2022

Daily Credit Briefing

Top Credit Stories BANKS - Termination of coverage CONSUMER - Termination of coverage FINANCIALS - Termination of coverage HIGH YIELD - Termination of coverage: INDUSTRIALS - Termination of coverage
UniCredit Sven
Sven Kreitmair @ UniCredit 30 June 2022