We forecast a technical recession throughout CEE over the winter due to falling purchasing power and foreign demand, tighter financial conditions and lower fiscal spending. A rebound is likely from 2H23 onwards if the eurozone economy recovers as wel...

Draft budget envisages wage and pension hikes, lower tax burden on wages, funds to mitigate energy crisis. GDP growth projected at 2.5%, CPI inflation - at 11.1%, CA deficit - 8.5% of GDP. New SBA arrangement with IMF to help Serbia meet targets, imp...

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) increased the policy rate by 50bp to 4.00% today, in line with our expectations (consensus: +25bp). With inflation likely to remain high and with monetary policy tightening by the ECB and the Fed, we expect the NBS t...

Europe is heading into a difficult winter, but we believe that CEE can avoid an energy crisis, even if Russia halts all exports of natural gas to Europe. We expect a technical recession in 4Q21-1Q23 caused by high energy prices, circumspect consumers...

Inflation increased from 12.8% yoy to 13.2% in August, broadly in line with expectations (13.3%) and driven by food (0.17pp), core (0.18pp) and energy inflation (0.06pp). The rise in energy inflation was driven by a hike in regulated gas prices (9%)....

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