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Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserves still comfortable?

Seemingly little concern on GCC pegs from investorsInvestors do not appear overly worried about currencies in the GCC. The performance of the region's equities and sovereign bonds are generally in line or better than oil-exporter peers and broade...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 18 May 2020
Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserves still comfortable?
Weekend Reading / Global

Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets

Four Biden versus Trump foreign policy contrasts - multilateralism, trade, Iran, climate: all would be positive shifts for emerging market investorsThere appears to be very little difference between Biden, Trump and the US Congress on the description...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 16 May 2020
Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets
Strategy Note / Saudi Arabia

Saudi pares fiscal deficit, hits consumer, prepares for long oil war, splits GCC

The fiscal cuts announced by Saudi Arabia on 11 May equate to c4% of GDP and a prior fiscal deficit of 12.6% (2020 forecast from IMF). The measures include a VAT hike (from 5% to 15%), ending a cost of living allowance for public sector workers and p...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 11 May 2020
Saudi pares fiscal deficit, hits consumer, prepares for long oil war, splits GCC
Strategy Note / Global

Oil spat turns into a splat: The winners and losers in emerging markets

Related readingGCC: The Gulf is not a safe haven unless (at least) oil prices recoverOil price shock: Assessing current account vulnerabilities for oil exportersOil war: Saudi, Russia can sustain a long war, but a 35% price drop shortens it
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 April 2020
Oil spat turns into a splat: A reminder of the winners and losers in EM
Equity Analysis / Global

The EM and FM banks best able to cope with weaker loan quality

2020 global GDP is likely to decline by 3.0%, according to IMF, -2.8% per IIF. The UN estimates 81% of the world’s workers are facing workplace restrictions. In this environment, banks’ loan books face a material deterioration. With...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 16 April 2020
The EM and FM banks best able to cope with weaker loan quality
Strategy Note / Global

Kuwait, GCC: The expat debate stirs again

The crisis brought about by the combination of Covid-19 and sustained low prices will test many aspects of the social, political, and economic equilibrium in the GCC. The role of expats could be one such aspect. Any deterioration in th...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 15 April 2020
Kuwait, GCC: The expat debate stirs again