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US Dollar is still on its perch as the dominant reserves and trade currency

SCO group, which includes China, India, and Russia, state intention to shift mutual trade payments away from US dollar. Sounds dramatic, but mutual trade amongst these three countries amounts to merely 1.2% of global trade. Dollar share of global cur...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 19 September 2022
US Dollar is still on its perch as the dominant reserves and trade currency
US Dollar is still on its perch as the dominant reserves and trade currency

Armenia-Azerbaijan clash: More tests to come for Russia in its periphery

Another round in an old Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, following what was always going to be a temporary ceasefire in 2020. But major foreign policy, domestic political, and economic changes since 2020 in the external actors, Russia and Turkey. Questio...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 15 September 2022
Armenia-Azerbaijan clash: More tests to come for Russia in its periphery
Armenia-Azerbaijan clash: More tests to come for Russia in its periphery

Russia's setbacks in Ukraine reopen all endgame scenarios

Confirmed reports of major territorial gains for Ukraine in counter-offensive around Kharkiv. War exacerbated fuel and food inflation, and US dollar strength, but united most of the G7, NATO, EU. Maybe a decisive pivot but all outcomes still possible...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 September 2022
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine reopen all endgame scenarios
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine reopen all endgame scenarios

OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 September 2022
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
Weekend Reading / Global

Emerging markets dominate foreign lobbying in the US

Emerging markets dominate foreign lobbying in the US but the payback on this spend is mixed. Lobbying probably does not trump long-running strategic interests in shaping US foreign policy. Yet emphasis on financial over military tools in US foreign p...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 3 September 2022
Emerging markets dominate foreign lobbying in the US
Emerging markets dominate foreign lobbying in the US
Weekend Reading / Global

Wake-up call for the West: While Russia fights, China prepares for war

It takes more than one event, one leader or one country to create a World War. The conflict in Ukraine and military rearmament in East Asia conjure unhappy echoes of the late 1930s. The West should have a more strategic eye on an increasingly confide...
Tellimer Research Duncan
Duncan Wales @ Tellimer Research 20 August 2022
Wake-up call for the West: While Russia fights, China prepares for war
Wake-up call for the West: While Russia fights, China prepares for war