The weakness in retail and production patterns, which disappointed in August, intensified in September. Retail trade shrunk 3.0% y/y; manufacturing output started to contract again in September. Monetary or fiscal support unlikely to come in 4Q20.

In September, retail trade was down 3.0% year-on-year, which is a deterioration compared to the 2.7% YoY drop seen in August, and a disappointment relative to both the -2.1% YoY consensus and our more cautious -2.5% YoY outlook. We do not take the de...

Following the September key rate decision to stay on hold, Russia's CPI continued toaccelerateand is likely to reach 3.8-3.9% year-on-year in October (Figure 1) amid weakness in the rouble and growth in global grain prices. The Ministry of Finance is...

Tinkoff Group and Yandex have officially announced an end to negotiations on the potential acquisition. Implication for TCS (TCS LI, TP $28.3, E/W): In the near term, the stock will see weakness. Implication for YNDX (YNDX US, U/R): Neutral-to-negati...

Any comparison of September's 5.0% year-on-year drop of industrial production to consensus would be irrelevant given that this release has been accompanied by a massive backward-looking revision of the dataset starting 2019 – which is a part of Rosst...

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...