SCO group, which includes China, India, and Russia, state intention to shift mutual trade payments away from US dollar. Sounds dramatic, but mutual trade amongst these three countries amounts to merely 1.2% of global trade. Dollar share of global cur...

Another round in an old Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, following what was always going to be a temporary ceasefire in 2020. But major foreign policy, domestic political, and economic changes since 2020 in the external actors, Russia and Turkey. Questio...

Confirmed reports of major territorial gains for Ukraine in counter-offensive around Kharkiv. War exacerbated fuel and food inflation, and US dollar strength, but united most of the G7, NATO, EU. Maybe a decisive pivot but all outcomes still possible...

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...

Emerging markets dominate foreign lobbying in the US but the payback on this spend is mixed. Lobbying probably does not trump long-running strategic interests in shaping US foreign policy. Yet emphasis on financial over military tools in US foreign p...

It takes more than one event, one leader or one country to create a World War. The conflict in Ukraine and military rearmament in East Asia conjure unhappy echoes of the late 1930s. The West should have a more strategic eye on an increasingly confide...