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Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia 9M 20 macro stats: Sliding deeper instead of rebounding

The weakness in retail and production patterns, which disappointed in August, intensified in September. Retail trade shrunk 3.0% y/y; manufacturing output started to contract again in September. Monetary or fiscal support unlikely to come in 4Q20.
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 21 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia: Consumption recovery stalls in September

In September, retail trade was down 3.0% year-on-year, which is a deterioration compared to the 2.7% YoY drop seen in August, and a disappointment relative to both the -2.1% YoY consensus and our more cautious -2.5% YoY outlook. We do not take the de...
ING Think
ING Think 20 October 2020
Russia: Consumption recovery stalls in September
Russia: Consumption recovery stalls in September
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia: Key rate to stay on hold, signal to remain dovish

Following the September key rate decision to stay on hold, Russia's CPI continued toaccelerateand is likely to reach 3.8-3.9% year-on-year in October (Figure 1) amid weakness in the rouble and growth in global grain prices. The Ministry of Finance is...
ING Think
ING Think 19 October 2020
Russia: Key rate to stay on hold, signal to remain dovish
Russia: Key rate to stay on hold, signal to remain dovish
Flash Report / Global

Yandex and Tinkoff end merger negotiations

Tinkoff Group and Yandex have officially announced an end to negotiations on the potential acquisition. Implication for TCS (TCS LI, TP $28.3, E/W): In the near term, the stock will see weakness. Implication for YNDX (YNDX US, U/R): Neutral-to-negati...
Alfa Anna Kurbatova
Anna Kurbatova @ Alfa 16 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Russia

Russia: Industrial production shows no improvement in September

Any comparison of September's 5.0% year-on-year drop of industrial production to consensus would be irrelevant given that this release has been accompanied by a massive backward-looking revision of the dataset starting 2019 – which is a part of Rosst...
ING Think
ING Think 15 October 2020
Russia: Industrial production shows no improvement in September
Russia: Industrial production shows no improvement in September
Macro Analysis / Global

IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...
ING Think
ING Think 15 October 2020
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets