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OPEC+ unchanged with oil price near fiscal breakeven

OPEC+ stuck to its output increase plan on 2 December but with the proviso that it could immediately react to a significant hit to demand from the Omicron Covid variant. An oil price of cUS$70 (Brent), close to the year-to-date average, approximately...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 3 December 2021
OPEC+ unchanged with oil price near fiscal breakeven
OPEC+ unchanged with oil price near fiscal breakeven

The emerging market banks that can best hedge equity investors' currency risk

The USD index has risen by 5% so far this year. Comparing banks' net foreign currency position with the over/(under) valuation of currencies against their REER fair values allows us to identify banks offering the best hedging potential. Looking at th...
Tellimer Research Rahul
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 25 November 2021
The emerging market banks that can best hedge equity investors' currency risk
The emerging market banks that can best hedge equity investors' currency risk

The emerging market banks that benefit the most from rising interest rates

Based on the size mismatch of their rate-sensitive assets and liabilities, Al Rajhi (Saudi Arabia), Bank Pekao and Santander Bank Polska (Poland), Qatar Islamic Bank and Saudi National Bank are most sensitive to rate hikes; every 100bps increase in r...
Tellimer Research Rohit
Rohit Kumar @ Tellimer Research 26 October 2021
The emerging market banks that benefit the most from rising interest rates
The emerging market banks that benefit the most from rising interest rates

Emerging market banks: The winners and losers from tighter monetary policy

For ease of reference, we present the results of our analysis at the country level in this report. Greek banks' bottom-line is most sensitive to higher margins; their current margins and profitability remain depressed. But since profit is smaller tha...
Tellimer Research Rahul
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 22 October 2021
Emerging market banks: The winners and losers from tighter monetary policy
Emerging market banks: The winners and losers from tighter monetary policy

Middle East security risks unchanged by US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Should governments in the Middle East that are allied, or at least aligned, with the US be more concerned for their security following the final US withdrawal from Afghanistan? Or, at least, no more than they were before recent images from Kabul airp...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 24 August 2021
Middle East security risks unchanged by US withdrawal from Afghanistan
Middle East security risks unchanged by US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Saudi-UAE split: OPEC+, Dubai, Israel, Iran, US Shale and inflation implications

OPEC has pulled an eleventh-hour rabbit out of the hat many times before, and it will need to do so again to bring the UAE back into the fold this time. The UAE is the fourth-largest producer in OPEC+ and wants its quota to reflect the over 20% capac...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 July 2021
Saudi-UAE split: OPEC+, Dubai, Israel, Iran, US Shale and inflation implications
Saudi-UAE split: OPEC+, Dubai, Israel, Iran, US Shale and inflation implications