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After Colombia legalises Venezuelan migrants we review refugee populations in EM
Venezuelan migrants are 3.6% of Colombia's population; President Duque is now legalising the undocumented portion. Problem is tougher for Chile (2%) and Peru (3%): legalisation curtails the undocumented economy but is politically risky. Other EMs wit...


Jobs matter more than votes: ESG pointers from Tunisia and Lebanon
Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...


2021 election calendar: The votes that matter
There are a number of elections of importance in smaller emerging and frontier markets in 2021. The general election, delayed by a year, on the pretext of Covid-19, is likely to occur in a highly sensitive political environment, as a result of the on...


EM sovereign bond issuance highest since April, but High Yield still lags
EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance jumped to US$26.2bn in November, more than twice the level in October, and the highest monthly volume since the market reopened in April. That is, the average run rate over the last four months has essentially...


Covid corruption: Extortion among Latin America's security forces
During the Covid-19 pandemic, several governments across Latin America mobilised available security forces – including police reserves, the military and the navy – to assist in responding to the pandemic. Security personnel are regularly arrested for...


Peru's new technocratic President is merely a stop-gap relief
New President Sagasti hails from the centrist Purple Party (7% of Congress) and has worked in academia, World Bank, UN. His centrist and technocratic credentials are a salve (eg 1.8% upward move in FX rate) but he is merely a stop-gap. Elections in A...