Paraguay

Sri Lanka eurobonds +2.3% post-sell-off; IMF awaits official creditor assurances after China's ExIm debt details shared. Argentina post-Milei win rally continues, +1.7% yesterday; Milei distances himself from Ocampo and dollarisation. Oman eurobonds...

Paraguay: Central bank accelerates easing pace and cuts rate by 50bps to 7.25%. We close our trade idea LONG COSTAR 45s - SHORT GUATEMALA 41s with a 14.3 CAGR since 11-Oct. Costa Rican toll road operator Autopistas del Sol (AUTSOL) 3Q23 brings no sur...

Argentina eurobonds +3.4%, Hold reiterated amid Milei policy uncertainty; banks reopen, post-election fears ease. Pakistan's eurobond +2.7%, +11.6% mtd fuelled by IMF review, potential for additional loan and improved BoP data. EM eurobonds rise 0.6%...

Argentina: President-elect Milei would not announce his Economics Minister until the inauguration on 10 December. Paraguay: Government reaches agreement for setting up new pension regulator. Colombia President Gustavo Petro hints a possible partnersh...

Colombia: President Petro suggests changes to the fiscal rule. Peru: Economy shows renewed weakness in September; unemployment above pre-pandemic levels. Dominican government agrees to extend airport concessions to operator Aerodom for additional 30...

Argentina: Massa dominated the presidential debate, though its impact on the vote is uncertain. Honduras: IMF staff concludes visit amid institutional crisis. AES Argentina Generación’s (AES) 3Q23 generation and EBITDA rise significantly.

Peru: BCRP stays on gradual easing path; PM Otárola announces new economic recovery plan. Suriname: Government announces new auction of offshore oil blocks. Argentina State-owned YPF’s (YPFDAR) EBITDA deteriorates further in 3Q23.

After 7bps reversal, US 10y stabilised, flat at 4.64% today – widening yesterday prompted -0.3% EM eurobond index losses. EM equities saw strongest third strongest day this year yesterday, +2.2% led by non-frontier markets. Rate-sensitive Latin Ameri...

Ecuador's President-elect Daniel Noboa to submit a tax reform in December; sees default risk likely without revenue hike. Costa Rica taps markets with new 31Y bond issuance at 7.75% yield. Argentine natural gas midstream operator TGS (TRAGAS) reports...

US 10y yields fall 20bps to 4.73% on a drop in PMI and expectations that Fed hiking cycle is over – EM eurobonds +0.5%. LatAm led eurobond/FX gains – long duration profile boosted 10y drop gains, US/Japan rate fall supported carry flows. LEBAN '32s -...

Venezuela: JPMorgan places sovereign and PDVSA bonds on 3-month index watch period. Bolivia: Former president Morales calls for mobilisation after suspension of his candidacy. PetroPeru reaches Adj. EBITDA breakeven in 3Q23, guides to have the last u...

We uphold our main investment themes…. … but acknowledge that global factors will be the main driver of near-term performance. We discuss trade ideas based on fundamental and valuation analysis that have a moderate sensitivity to global factors.

Argentina: Government to introduce FX programme for mining exports. Venezuela: Government is ready to approve a return to Mexico, according to Reuters. Argentine government extends the Comahue hydro concessions, including AES Argentina Generacion’s A...

Ecuador: Pollster Comunicaliza shows a slight narrowing of Noboa's lead compared to previous survey. Colombia: Banrep directors looking for the best opportunity to start reducing rates. EPM’s (EEPPME) board of directors authorises joint capitalisatio...

Finance Minister says that El Salvador seeks an acceptable deal with the IMF. Colombia’s Senate starts pension reform discussions. Millicom accepted EPM’s conditions to jointly capitalise TigoUNE with COP600bn (USD141mn); final signing pending.

Colombia: Banrep held the monetary policy rate at 13.25% after a split decision. Costa Rica: Government prepares USD1.5bn Eurobond issuance. Medellin Mayor Quintero says EPM reserved USD75mn for an eventual capitalisation of TigoUNE, resigns from his...

Venezuela: Machado requests UN to oversee primaries. Guatemala and Panama tap international markets. Rising electricity bills threaten Bahamian competitiveness.

Venezuela: Electoral council CNE offers support to organise primaries. Ecuador: Central bank and IMF discourage future government’s use of reserves. Millicom (TIGO) proposes EPM option to sell shares at 10% premium one year after the needed capitaliz...

Armenia's eurobonds fell -1.2% yesterday on news of major attacks by Azerbaijan in the disputed Nagorn-Karabakh region. THB fell 0.5% today on news that Thai stimulus will increase borrowing 7.6% next year – local 10y yields hit ytd highs. Mongolia's...

Venezuela: US urges Maduro to set a clear timeline for the 2024 elections. Milei holds the lead in Argentina presidential election polls, while Massa and Bullrich compete to reach the runoff. Airports operator Aerodom (AERDOS) reports 5% y-o-y passen...

Global headwinds have been building up. Our forecasts factor in goldilocks convergence... but what if the global stagflation scenario materialises? Barring stagflation, we find value in CCC credits and low-beta names with strong fiscal metrics.

Peru: Central bank shaves benchmark rate by 25bps to 7.50%; more cuts are in the pipeline. S&P upgrades Jamaica’s credit rating to BB-. Peruvian Auna (AUNASA) reported strong top line growth q-o-q in 2Q23, but margins deteriorate on higher admin expe...

Venezuela’s Cabello says bans on opposition candidates will be maintained. Trinidad & Tobago: We expect new 7-year note to trade in the 5.9% area. CMI Energy’s (CMIENE) 2Q23 EBITDA weakens amid lower hydro resources in Guatemala.

Argentina must pay cUSD16bn for unfavourable ruling over YPF nationalisation. Venezuela’s Maduro seeks Chinese funding to hold back political concessions. PETRPE 2022 financial statements were submitted by the auditor; aims to comply with the waiver...

Venezuela: Machado receives support of Convergence Party. Panama: Discussion on mining contract resumes amid growing social discontent. Paraguay-based Frigorífico Concepción EBITDA surpasses management expectations, could exceed USD150mn target in 20...