At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...

GCC equities (MSCI GCC) broadly tracked the 10% increase in oil price over July and August 2020. Oil price has dropped 10% since the start of September but GCC equities are flat, implying higher risk near-term......given fiscal break-even oil prices...

Bahrain's tiny size means its normalisation of ties with Israel (announced on 11 September) changes little apart from competition with freezones in the UAE for attracting Israeli firms seeking to address the GCC and regional market (with its exports...

Low oil prices (and output) and Covid-19 disruption drive IMF to cut 2020/21 GDP forecasts by 3ppt/ 1ppt to -7.4%/+2.6%. Slow liberalisation, duplication, regional fragmentation, high citizen wages, FX pegs hinder the GCC's structural growth. Deep so...

The GCC-Levant region is split between those markets valued close to their historic average (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi) and those at large discounts (Dubai, Jordan, Oman). Markets in the former group have been dominated in recent y...

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...