Low oil prices (and output) and Covid-19 disruption drive IMF to cut 2020/21 GDP forecasts by 3ppt/ 1ppt to -7.4%/+2.6%. Slow liberalisation, duplication, regional fragmentation, high citizen wages, FX pegs hinder the GCC's structural growth. Deep so...

The GCC-Levant region is split between those markets valued close to their historic average (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi) and those at large discounts (Dubai, Jordan, Oman). Markets in the former group have been dominated in recent y...

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...

Across the world, banks are being asked to take on much of the burden of easing the pain of Covid-19 lockdowns, by offering loan maturity extensions, interest holidays and cheaper credit. For our coverage universe, the average level is 74%. Other thi...

Recent budget announcements (Kenya and Mauritius in Africa, Bangladesh and Pakistan in Asia) highlight the strain caused by Covid-19 lockdowns on emerging market finances. Which banks could be most exposed to higher tax rates? Looking outside the GCC...

Investors do not appear overly worried about currencies in the GCC. Given that oil price is unlikely to recover to fiscal breakeven levels and Covid-19 may permanently reduce total population (hysteresis effects from job losses are severe in a popula...