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Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices

At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 20 October 2020
Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices
Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices
Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)

GCC equities (MSCI GCC) broadly tracked the 10% increase in oil price over July and August 2020. Oil price has dropped 10% since the start of September but GCC equities are flat, implying higher risk near-term......given fiscal break-even oil prices...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 13 September 2020
Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)
Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)
Strategy Note / Global

Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous

Bahrain's tiny size means its normalisation of ties with Israel (announced on 11 September) changes little apart from competition with freezones in the UAE for attracting Israeli firms seeking to address the GCC and regional market (with its exports...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 September 2020
Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous
Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous
Strategy Note / Global

GCC Wealth & Diversification: Qatar's privilege (in one chart)

Low oil prices (and output) and Covid-19 disruption drive IMF to cut 2020/21 GDP forecasts by 3ppt/ 1ppt to -7.4%/+2.6%. Slow liberalisation, duplication, regional fragmentation, high citizen wages, FX pegs hinder the GCC's structural growth. Deep so...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress

The GCC-Levant region is split between those markets valued close to their historic average (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi) and those at large discounts (Dubai, Jordan, Oman). Markets in the former group have been dominated in recent y...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 July 2020
GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress
GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress
Strategy Note / Global

Chasing technology's tail: EM equity strategy overview

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 28 June 2020
Chasing technology's tail: EM equity strategy overview
Chasing technology's tail: EM equity strategy overview