Covid-19 second waves, the reliance on Saudi unilaterally shouldering the burden of marginal output restraint, and the fragile nature of Saudi-Russia cooperation tempers our optimism on oil relative to other commodities with secular demand drivers (e...

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance jumped to US$26.2bn in November, more than twice the level in October, and the highest monthly volume since the market reopened in April. That is, the average run rate over the last four months has essentially...

It should be no surprise that Oman is attempting to increase fiscal revenue from tax given persistent low oil prices is pushing its fiscal deficit to 18% and 17% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, according to IMF forecasts. But the pace of introduction...

At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...

GCC equities (MSCI GCC) broadly tracked the 10% increase in oil price over July and August 2020. Oil price has dropped 10% since the start of September but GCC equities are flat, implying higher risk near-term......given fiscal break-even oil prices...

Bahrain's tiny size means its normalisation of ties with Israel (announced on 11 September) changes little apart from competition with freezones in the UAE for attracting Israeli firms seeking to address the GCC and regional market (with its exports...