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Strategy Note / Global

GCC Wealth & Diversification: Qatar's privilege (in one chart)

Low oil prices (and output) and Covid-19 disruption drive IMF to cut 2020/21 GDP forecasts by 3ppt/ 1ppt to -7.4%/+2.6%. Slow liberalisation, duplication, regional fragmentation, high citizen wages, FX pegs hinder the GCC's structural growth. Deep so...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress

The GCC-Levant region is split between those markets valued close to their historic average (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi) and those at large discounts (Dubai, Jordan, Oman). Markets in the former group have been dominated in recent y...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Chasing technology's tail: EM equity strategy overview

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 28 June 2020
Equity Analysis / Global

EM Banks: Funding fresh credit looks most challenging in these markets

Across the world, banks are being asked to take on much of the burden of easing the pain of Covid-19 lockdowns, by offering loan maturity extensions, interest holidays and cheaper credit. For our coverage universe, the average level is 74%. Other thi...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 22 June 2020
Macro Analysis / Global

Banks face headwinds from shaky emerging market government finances

Recent budget announcements (Kenya and Mauritius in Africa, Bangladesh and Pakistan in Asia) highlight the strain caused by Covid-19 lockdowns on emerging market finances. Which banks could be most exposed to higher tax rates? Looking outside the GCC...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 19 June 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserves still comfortable?

Investors do not appear overly worried about currencies in the GCC. Given that oil price is unlikely to recover to fiscal breakeven levels and Covid-19 may permanently reduce total population (hysteresis effects from job losses are severe in a popula...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 18 May 2020