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Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 March 2023
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight

Saudi-GCC (ex-Kuwait) look like China's transformation without the scale, Russia's strategic value without the sanctions. Defensively positioned amid higher US rates and rocky geopolitics: commodity exports, low sovereign debt, solid $ pegs. Positive...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 9 March 2023
Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight
Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

Vermilion Research David
David Nicoski @ Vermilion Research 25 January 2023

IMF updated forecasts show even faster growth in emerging vs developed: 2 charts

Amid overall gloomy outlook, updated forecasts for 2023 imply bigger gap between faster-growth EM and slower-growth DM. In Large EM, India and Indonesia, and in Small EM, Bangladesh, Kenya, Philippines and Vietnam stand out for fast growth. Rare unch...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 October 2022
IMF updated forecasts show even faster growth in emerging vs developed: 2 charts
IMF updated forecasts show even faster growth in emerging vs developed: 2 charts

OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 September 2022
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

OPEC+ decision suits Saudi, US, Russia but no oil price relief for importers

OPEC+ increased its output on 2 June but not by an amount that makes a meaningful dent in global supply. Should China demand growth snap back, in the event that Covid restrictions subside and policy stimulus come into effect, then oil prices could go...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 June 2022
OPEC+ decision suits Saudi, US, Russia but no oil price relief for importers
OPEC+ decision suits Saudi, US, Russia but no oil price relief for importers