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Equity Analysis / Nigeria

Nigeria Banks: Battling pandemic, loan book restructuring and regulatory change

Lower earnings estimates: We forecast a 5% CAGR for earnings in FY 20f-23f for our Nigeria bank coverage, with an average ROE of 13.3%. We still expect pre-provision profits to rise by c8% pa in FY 20f-43f, supported by revaluation gains, a moderatio...
Tellimer Research Nkemdilim Nwadialor
Nkemdilim Nwadialor @ Tellimer Research 23 July 2020
Flash Report / Nigeria

Nigeria MPC flash: No news is bad news for NGN

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held rates at 12.5% today, with eight out of 10 members voting to keep the rate unchanged versus two voting for a cut. This is in line with the median Bloomberg forecast, with a range of 12-12.5% among seven economis...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 20 July 2020
Flash Report / Nigeria

Nigeria Banks: Lower NPL ratios on the horizon as CBN allows inter-bank debits

The NIBSS will also create and maintain a watch-list of consistent loan defaulters to enable banks to screen out problem lenders and disburse loans more prudently. A growing portion of private sector credit has come from fintech lenders such as Migo,...
Tellimer Research Nkemdilim Nwadialor
Nkemdilim Nwadialor @ Tellimer Research 14 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

China challengers in manufacturing with low cost labour (in one chart)

For manufacturing activities not easily replaced by automation or 3D printing, which countries win share from China? Low wages and scale matter most in this segment: We plot wage curve up to China in countries with over 40mn population. Labour flexib...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 13 July 2020
Flash Report / Nigeria

Nigeria: Official NGN devaluation is a positive baby step but more is needed

The official NGN exchange rate weakened c5.8% from NGN360/US$ to NGN381/US$ on Tuesday, as reported by FMDQ. However, there is still some confusion regarding the devaluation (or as CBN Governor Emefiele would surely prefer to call it, “adjustment”)....
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 9 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Corruption: The ugly truth for EM and ESG investors

DOES CORRUPTION BOTHER YOU? Bangladesh: The use of anti-corruption as a means to persecute and weaken those politicians sitting in the opposition precedes the post-2009 era of the de facto one-party state under the Awami League (ie the Bangladesh Nat...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 7 July 2020