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Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Lower House approves 2021 Revenue Law – now to the Senate

The Lower House finalised the approval process of the 2021 Revenue Law, along other fiscal-related legislation. While macroeconomic assumptions were unchanged, other adjustments were made, driving revenues slightly down. In this respect, total income...
Banorte Gabriel Casillas Olvera
Gabriel Casillas Olvera @ Banorte 22 October 2020
Mexico: Lower House approves 2021 Revenue Law – now to the Senate
Mexico: Lower House approves 2021 Revenue Law – now to the Senate
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexican unemployment ticks lower, driven by formal sector

In contrast to recent months, job gains concentrated in the formal sector (63.4% of the total), with a decline of the informality rate to 54.9% from 55.1% in August. All in all, this implies that overall employment levels remain 4.6 million below tho...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 21 October 2020
Mexico unemployment rate ticks lower, driven by formal sector
Mexico unemployment rate ticks lower, driven by formal sector
Macro Analysis / Global

IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF predicts the global economy to experience a 4.4% contraction in 2020 (+0.8ppt vs its June estimates) and a partial rebound to 5.2% growth in 2021 (-0.2ppt). Asia (-1.7% in 2020; +8.0% in 2021) faces a mor...
ING Think
ING Think 15 October 2020
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets
IMF World Economic Outlook: Looking beyond the pandemic for emerging markets
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Industry recovery continues with a positive surprise in construction

Industrial production (August): -9.0% y/y nsa; consensus: -10.3% (range: -13.0% to -8.1%); previous: -11.4%. Activity rose 3.3% m/m. We saw strong positive surprise in construction (11.2%), while manufacturing decelerated. We maintain that externally...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 12 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Ahead of the Curve — Recovery likely decelerated in August

Focus on industrial production for August, estimated to have slowed down its pace of recovery to +1.2% m/m (-10.6% y/y). Specifically, we expect construction to lag behind, with manufacturing more modest and mining bouncing back slightly. In addition...
Banorte Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal @ Banorte 9 October 2020
Macro Analysis / Mexico

Mexico: Banxico minutes – a divided board

The minutes of the last policy meeting (Sep-24th) showed a less dovish tone, similar to the statement. Nevertheless, they also portray a divided Board over the path going forward, making the next decision a close call. We expect Banxico to maintain t...
Banorte Gabriel Casillas Olvera
Gabriel Casillas Olvera @ Banorte 9 October 2020
Mexico: Banxico minutes – a divided board
Mexico: Banxico minutes – a divided board