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Strategy Note / Global

Iran likely to react to nuclear scientist killing with restraint not revenge

Assassination of nuclear scientist echoes that of others in 2010-12 and of overseas commander Soleimani in Jan 2020. Iran has implicated Israel, but restraint is more likely than retaliation given Biden's pledge to restart negotiations. Reaction of o...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 28 November 2020
Iran reaction to nuclear scientist killing likely restraint not revenge
Iran reaction to nuclear scientist killing likely restraint not revenge
Strategy Note / Global

Africa equities should catch LatAm peers, Egypt top pick

Africa is no less geared to the bump in commodity export prices and no less chequered in terms of sluggish reform and accumulation of debt than Latin America, where much more liquidly traded equity market peers have rallied sharply this month. Egypt...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 25 November 2020
Africa equities should catch LatAm peers, Egypt top pick
Africa equities should catch LatAm peers, Egypt top pick
Strategy Note / Global

UAE doing all it can to reignite expats, Dubai equities still cheap

Are these reforms sufficient? They are more likely to help the off-plan (eg Emaar Development) than the completed (eg Emaar Malls) part of the real estate sector, which might prompt a reversal in the relative ytd performance of these two subsidiaries...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 24 November 2020
UAE doing all it can to reignite expats, Dubai equities still cheap
UAE doing all it can to reignite expats, Dubai equities still cheap
Flash Report / Turkey

Turkey central bank delivers on rate hikes

Today, the CBRT, under the leadership of its new governor, Naci Ağbal, hiked the one-week repo rate by 475bps to 15%, in line with the median estimate of 25 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. However, the shift away from Turkey’s convoluted rate corrido...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 19 November 2020
Turkey central bank delivers on rate hikes
Turkey central bank delivers on rate hikes
Strategy Note / Global

Morocco Polisario conflict a fiscal and diplomatic risk for Africa's steady eddy

The spark for clashes was Polisario's blockade (since 21 October) of a road through Guerguerat on the Moroccan-Mauritanian border. The historic context dates back to the Spanish colonial withdrawal from the region in 1975 and the subsequent war betwe...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 16 November 2020
Morocco Polisario conflict a fiscal and diplomatic risk for Africa's steady eddy
Morocco Polisario conflict a fiscal and diplomatic risk for Africa's steady eddy
Macro Analysis / Global

Revisiting the IMF SDR allocation — The time is right

The extraordinary G20 finance ministers and central bank governors (FMCBG) meeting today, ahead of the Leaders’ Summit (21-22 November), is due to publish the Common Framework for dealing with bilateral debt and also discuss outstanding issues relate...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 13 November 2020
Revisiting the IMF SDR allocation — The time is right
Revisiting the IMF SDR allocation — The time is right