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Equity Analysis / Global

The EM and FM banks best able to cope with weaker loan quality

2020 global GDP is likely to decline by 3.0%, according to IMF, -2.8% per IIF. The UN estimates 81% of the world’s workers are facing workplace restrictions. In this environment, banks’ loan books face a material deterioration. With...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 16 April 2020
The EM and FM banks best able to cope with weaker loan quality
Equity Analysis / Global

FM and EM Banks: The 3-D threat from Coronavirus

The US Federal Reserve yesterday cut interest rates by 100bps, in addition to the 50bps cut announced on 3 March, and also announced a massive asset purchase programme and international co-ordination to protect USD-liquidity in the financial system....
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 16 March 2020
Equity Analysis / Global

Frontier and EM banks: What UK investors are thinking

We recently met FM and small EM-focused institutional investors in the UK (to access our full investor presentation click on 'download full report' at the bottom of the article). Most appear resigned to their markets remaining out o...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 19 February 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Frontier-Emerging Equity Monthly, January: War and Pestilence

January started with investor fears of war (Iran) and ended with fear of another horseman of the apocalypse, pestilence (China). Oil prices spiked 4% after the assassination of Iran Quds Force leader, Qassem Soleimani, in a US drone st...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 24 January 2020
Equity Analysis / Global

Banks: The key themes for the industry, and the stocks and markets most impacted

Our frontier and emerging market coverage of 91 banks in 20 markets enables us to draw parallels across the industry. We have identified 29 themes for the banking sector – 13 positive and 16 negative – and mapped our markets and stocks ag...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 23 January 2020
Equity Analysis / Global

Banks: FY 19 results preview – falling risk costs

We expect 14% median profit growth across our coverage of 91 banks in 20 markets, driven by a 10% higher top line and an 11% rise in pre-provision profit. ROE should come in at 16.1% for the year. We expect banks in Argentina (higher margins/securiti...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 13 January 2020