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Macro Analysis / Lebanon

Lebanon back to square one as prime minister resigns

Prime Minister-designate Mustapha Adib stepped down on Saturday after failing to form a cabinet, saying that efforts to form a non-partisan government were "bound to fail" and expressing his "sincerest apologies to the Lebanese people". President Mic...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 28 September 2020
Lebanon: Back to square one as prime minister resigns
Lebanon: Back to square one as prime minister resigns
Macro Analysis / Lebanon

Lebanon webinar notes: no end in sight for hyperinflation and currency crisis

Lebanon is currently experiencing hyperinflation, the first episode ever recorded in the Middle East and only the 62nd globally (see here for Prof. While the IMF is recommending a devaluation followed by a managed float, there is not a single case am...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 16 September 2020
How to fix Lebanon's hyperinflation and currency crisis
How to fix Lebanon's hyperinflation and currency crisis
Flash Report / Lebanon

Lebanon: New premier faces uphill battle

Little-known diplomat Mustafa Adib has been named Lebanon’s new premier after receiving votes from 90 out of 120 MPs and will now begin forming a new government. The rapid formation of a new government is good news for Lebanon, which has been left ru...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 31 August 2020
Lebanon: New premier faces uphill battle
Lebanon: New premier faces uphill battle
Macro Analysis / Global

The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding

This is the second in a series of thought pieces that will look at the role of development finance institutions post-Covid-19. In practice, however, the IMF has so far stuck to its guns and refused to extend funding for countries with an unsustainabl...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 25 August 2020
The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding
The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding
Strategy Note / Global

Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club

Near the end of an American Football game when the offensive team is desperate it will attempt a long pass with potentially heroic consequences but, generally low probability of success - the ‘Hail Mary’ play. It is perhaps too cynical an observation...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 August 2020
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Sovereign Analysis / Lebanon

Lebanon restructuring on pause as we await a new government

Following last week’s tragic explosion in Beirut (see here) and the government’s subsequent resignation this week (see here), we consolidate our thoughts on where Lebanon stands and where it is headed. While government actions had, in the IMF’s words...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 13 August 2020
Lebanon restructuring on pause as we await a new government
Lebanon restructuring on pause as we await a new government