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Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 March 2023
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight

Saudi-GCC (ex-Kuwait) look like China's transformation without the scale, Russia's strategic value without the sanctions. Defensively positioned amid higher US rates and rocky geopolitics: commodity exports, low sovereign debt, solid $ pegs. Positive...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 9 March 2023
Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight
Saudi-GCC: EM portfolio defence, structural transformation, index heavyweight

External Liquidity Index updated to show who may be next to restructure

We update our External Liquidity Index for 66 emerging & frontier markets to gauge the risk of an external debt crisis. The most vulnerable (excluding those in default) are Mozambique, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Bolivia, Mongolia and Tunisia. The least vuln...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 10 February 2023
External Liquidity Index updated to show who may be next to restructure
External Liquidity Index updated to show who may be next to restructure

Middle East EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook

Saudi is now 4% of EM index, others (UAE, Qatar, Kuwait) are 3%, and Bahrain, Jordan, Oman are 6% in FM index. Oil prices off their peak but by nowhere near enough to derail growth in the GCC or take Saudi off the Large EM radar. Top picks: Dubai (to...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 17 January 2023
Middle East EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook
Middle East EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook

Kuwait's new government faces old problems

Politics still appears dysfunctional despite relatively new crown prince (de facto emir), prime minister and parliament. The opposition has 56% of seats and 76% of MPs have reportedly objected to the appointed PM's appointed cabinet. It looks as if K...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 October 2022
Kuwait's new government faces old problems
Kuwait's new government faces old problems

OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 September 2022
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase