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Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserves still comfortable?

Seemingly little concern on GCC pegs from investorsInvestors do not appear overly worried about currencies in the GCC. The performance of the region's equities and sovereign bonds are generally in line or better than oil-exporter peers and broade...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 18 May 2020
Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserves still comfortable?
Strategy Note / Global

Oil spat turns into a splat: The winners and losers in emerging markets

Related readingGCC: The Gulf is not a safe haven unless (at least) oil prices recoverOil price shock: Assessing current account vulnerabilities for oil exportersOil war: Saudi, Russia can sustain a long war, but a 35% price drop shortens it
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 April 2020
Oil spat turns into a splat: A reminder of the winners and losers in EM
Strategy Note / Global

Kuwait, GCC: The expat debate stirs again

The crisis brought about by the combination of Covid-19 and sustained low prices will test many aspects of the social, political, and economic equilibrium in the GCC. The role of expats could be one such aspect. Any deterioration in th...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 15 April 2020
Kuwait, GCC: The expat debate stirs again
Strategy Note / Kuwait

Kuwait: MSCI EM delayed to Nov 2020, no change to fundamentals

MSCI-related flows: repeat-cycle for passive funds, more pain for some FM fundsThe MSCI announcement on 8 April is a surprise and important, in the short-term, but in no way changes the long-term picture. (1) Kuwait stocks earmarked for inclusio...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 9 April 2020
Kuwait: MSCI EM delayed to Nov 2020 (from May), no change to fundamentals
Strategy Note / Global

GCC: The Gulf is not a safe haven unless (at least) oil prices recover

The candidacy of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) as a potential safe haven in the current global crisis, which hurts all emerging markets, is looking ever weaker, evidenced by the valuation de-rating of equity markets relative to developed ma...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 1 April 2020
GCC: The Gulf is not a safe haven unless (at least) oil prices recover
Strategy Note / Global

GCC: Sovereign wealth warning from the IMF (again)

"At the current fiscal stance, the region’s financial wealth could be depleted by 2034. Fiscal sustainability will require significant consolidation in the coming years." This is the stark warning for the Gulf Cooperation Council...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 7 February 2020