The risk is that the election delay triggers a resumption of mass protests (and the use of force against those protestors by militia threatened by any change to the status quo of formal politics). Protests kicked off in October 2019 and one of the co...

Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...

The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) announced on Saturday that it was devaluing the dinar peg by c20% from IQD1,182/US$ to 1,450/US$, and will sell dollars to local banks at the rate of 1,460/US$. This is the first currency devaluation since 2003, and the...

Iran may be regarded as recalcitrant by its geopolitical opponents, and even portrayed as rabid by the most virulent amongst those opponents, but investors looking at oil price and the Middle East (Saudi and the GCC, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon) should...

At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...

More severe scenarios involve new US airstrikes (of the sort seen in the first week of January 2020 when Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani was assassinated). On this occasion, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Foreign Minister Zarif have...