100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...

Recent high inflation prints in North America and Europe have shocked many observers, leading some commentators to revise upwards their central bank rate hike forecasts. Based on the most recent announcements, we estimate that in around 20% of countr...

As many start off their summer holidays, US President Biden will head to the Middle East on 13-16 July to visit Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. The time in 2019 when presidential candidate Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah...

The European Union will seek to step up cooperation with African countries to help replace imports of Russian natural gas and reduce its dependence on Moscow by almost two-thirds. A mega-project in Nigeria is raising hopes for more gas imports for Eu...

What hole will a total Russian oil ban leave? Europe does not have the space to make such a move, suggesting that most of Russia's exports of 7mn bpd of crude are currently expected to survive the sanctions and bans. This will limit the extent to whi...

If Russian oil is embargoed, not every customer will participate – eg China and Belarus, and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stated his opposition. And longer-term, a prolonged period of very high oil prices likely accelerates the transition to ...