Saudi and Iran restore diplomatic relations, lower regional risk, offer glimmer of hope for Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen. Israel is ultra hawkish on Iran and pursues normalisation with Saudi; this detente likely does not change their approach. China b...

The illiberal turn in Israel's electoral democracy increases domestic more than regional political risk. A divided set of opposition parties and the growth of the ultra-orthodox population will perpetuate this shift. Despite discomfort for US, GCC, T...

The Russia-Ukraine War has set Russia on a path to autarky (economic isolation) and conventional military impotence. Iran et al. suggest this is not sufficient for regime change; it may reinforce authoritarianism and non-conventional war. It makes Ru...

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...

Recent high inflation prints in North America and Europe have shocked many observers, leading some commentators to revise upwards their central bank rate hike forecasts. Based on the most recent announcements, we estimate that in around 20% of countr...

As many start off their summer holidays, US President Biden will head to the Middle East on 13-16 July to visit Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. The time in 2019 when presidential candidate Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah...