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Weekend Reading / Global

Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets

There appears to be very little difference between Biden, Trump and the US Congress on the description of China as a long-term geopolitical rival, the view of Iran, North Korea and Russia as security threats, the sanctity of the security of Israel, a...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 16 May 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Aged Leaders: Nigeria's Kyari Covid-19 death a reminder of elite succession risk

Covid-19 related death of Abba Kyari (aged 67), chief of staff to Nigeria's President Buhari (77), on 17 April. Succession risk not new to Nigeria or unique; eg recent speculation on Brexit talks delay amid PM Johnson's (55) illness. Leaders above ag...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 19 April 2020
Flash Report / Global

Ukraine seeks help from IMF's emergency financing facility

Ukraine looks to have become the latest country seeking to tap funds from the IMF’s emergency financing facilities to help countries deal with the coronavirus pandemic that was announced earlier this month, according to local media yesterday citing t...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 20 March 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Iran: Elections will not reshape policy or regional risk

The upcoming Iranian parliamentary election will likely result in higher representation for hardliners. Despite tremendous economic stress, the Iranian political system (and the central role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards) is intact. We have pre...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 9 February 2020
Sovereign Analysis / Global

Iraq and the US-Iran escalation risks

We downgrade our recommendation on Iraq’s bonds to Sell from Buy. Recent events, following theassassination of Iran’s Major General Qassim Soleimani by the US and Iran’s subsequent – but expected – retaliation, have an element of ‘this time is differ...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 8 January 2020
Strategy Note / Iran

Iran: Why Iraq is so at risk, and other frequently asked questions by investors

War – A wholesale attack on Iran (our definition of an all-out-war) is no more likely now than before the Soleimani assassination. Only in a scenario where the Iranian leadership has nothing to lose do we see a sawn-off shotgun approach to destabilis...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 8 January 2020