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Flash Report / Global

Saudi-Iran detente brokered by China: A sign of the times?

Saudi and Iran restore diplomatic relations, lower regional risk, offer glimmer of hope for Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen. Israel is ultra hawkish on Iran and pursues normalisation with Saudi; this detente likely does not change their approach. China b...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 March 2023
Saudi-Iran detente brokered by China: A sign of the times?
Saudi-Iran detente brokered by China: A sign of the times?

Israel's illiberalism is here to stay, raises domestic more than regional risk

The illiberal turn in Israel's electoral democracy increases domestic more than regional political risk. A divided set of opposition parties and the growth of the ultra-orthodox population will perpetuate this shift. Despite discomfort for US, GCC, T...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 24 February 2023
Israel's illiberalism is here to stay, raises domestic more than regional risk
Israel's illiberalism is here to stay, raises domestic more than regional risk
Global Themes / Global

Predictions of Putin's demise are overplayed: Precedents from EM

The Russia-Ukraine War has set Russia on a path to autarky (economic isolation) and conventional military impotence. Iran et al. suggest this is not sufficient for regime change; it may reinforce authoritarianism and non-conventional war. It makes Ru...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 22 November 2022
Predictions of Putin's demise are overplayed: Precedents from EM
Predictions of Putin's demise are overplayed: Precedents from EM

OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 September 2022
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

Hyperinflation accounting: Coming to an emerging market near you

Recent high inflation prints in North America and Europe have shocked many observers, leading some commentators to revise upwards their central bank rate hike forecasts. Based on the most recent announcements, we estimate that in around 20% of countr...
Tellimer Research Rahul
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 22 July 2022
Hyperinflation accounting: Coming to an emerging market near you
Hyperinflation accounting: Coming to an emerging market near you

Biden's Middle East trip likely won't push oil prices down

As many start off their summer holidays, US President Biden will head to the Middle East on 13-16 July to visit Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia. The time in 2019 when presidential candidate Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 July 2022
Biden's Middle East trip likely won't push oil prices down
Biden's Middle East trip likely won't push oil prices down