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Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices

At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 20 October 2020
Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices
Saudi and GCC ugly fiscal truth from low oil prices
Strategy Note / Global

Iraq risks are increasing (US sanctions or airstrikes, protests, oil revenues)

More severe scenarios involve new US airstrikes (of the sort seen in the first week of January 2020 when Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani was assassinated). On this occasion, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Foreign Minister Zarif have...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 October 2020
Iraq risks are increasing (US sanctions or airstrikes, protests, oil revenues)
Iraq risks are increasing (US sanctions or airstrikes, protests, oil revenues)
Macro Analysis / Global

The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding

This is the second in a series of thought pieces that will look at the role of development finance institutions post-Covid-19. In practice, however, the IMF has so far stuck to its guns and refused to extend funding for countries with an unsustainabl...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 25 August 2020
The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding
The moral imperative (or lack thereof) for IMF funding
Strategy Note / Global

UAE-Israel deal: Historic, not game-changing, at first glance

At face value, the UAE’s formal recognition of Israel and the latter’s suspension of West Bank annexation plans look, respectively, like an unprecedented geopolitical shift by a GCC state and a stark reversal of a potentially inflammatory Israeli pol...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 August 2020
UAE-Israel deal: Historic, not game-changing, at first glance
UAE-Israel deal: Historic, not game-changing, at first glance
Weekend Reading / Global

Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets

There appears to be very little difference between Biden, Trump and the US Congress on the description of China as a long-term geopolitical rival, the view of Iran, North Korea and Russia as security threats, the sanctity of the security of Israel, a...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 16 May 2020
Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets
Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets
Strategy Note / Global

Aged Leaders: Nigeria's Kyari Covid-19 death a reminder of elite succession risk

Covid-19 related death of Abba Kyari (aged 67), chief of staff to Nigeria's President Buhari (77), on 17 April. Succession risk not new to Nigeria or unique; eg recent speculation on Brexit talks delay amid PM Johnson's (55) illness. Leaders above ag...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 19 April 2020