At least, most in the GCC region are forecast to bring down their fiscal breakevens in 2021, eg Saudi drops from US$78 (with a c11% fiscal deficit) in 2020 to US$68 (6% fiscal deficit) in 2021. Saudi and GCC currencies: Drop the pegs while FX reserve...

More severe scenarios involve new US airstrikes (of the sort seen in the first week of January 2020 when Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani was assassinated). On this occasion, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and Foreign Minister Zarif have...

This is the second in a series of thought pieces that will look at the role of development finance institutions post-Covid-19. In practice, however, the IMF has so far stuck to its guns and refused to extend funding for countries with an unsustainabl...

At face value, the UAE’s formal recognition of Israel and the latter’s suspension of West Bank annexation plans look, respectively, like an unprecedented geopolitical shift by a GCC state and a stark reversal of a potentially inflammatory Israeli pol...

There appears to be very little difference between Biden, Trump and the US Congress on the description of China as a long-term geopolitical rival, the view of Iran, North Korea and Russia as security threats, the sanctity of the security of Israel, a...

Covid-19 related death of Abba Kyari (aged 67), chief of staff to Nigeria's President Buhari (77), on 17 April. Succession risk not new to Nigeria or unique; eg recent speculation on Brexit talks delay amid PM Johnson's (55) illness. Leaders above ag...