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Macro Analysis / Global

EM Covid-19 survey: Government support programmes are missing their mark

More low-income individuals aren't benefitting from government support than wealthier individuals. This difference seems most severe in China and India. Low-income individuals can't benefit from such schemes if they are financially excluded. Low-inco...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 4 August 2020
Macro Analysis / Global

Covid-19 consumer survey: The EMs hurting (and helping) the most

Lower income is most prevalent in Indonesia, while it is less of an issue for Brazilians and Mexicans. In terms of changes in behaviour, home-working is now much more prevalent in Indonesia, while in China relatively fewer respondents had made this s...
Tellimer Research Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 24 July 2020
Macro Analysis / Global

EM sovereign debt: No time to be complacent on fallen angel risks

Since then, the number of downgrades has dropped substantially, but it’s not the time to become complacent. As another warning sign, 54 sovereign ratings have been placed on a negative outlook since March (vs 29 to stable and 1 to positive). Among th...
ING Think
ING Think 20 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

China challengers in manufacturing with low cost labour (in one chart)

For manufacturing activities not easily replaced by automation or 3D printing, which countries win share from China? Low wages and scale matter most in this segment: We plot wage curve up to China in countries with over 40mn population. Labour flexib...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 13 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

Asia equity strategy: Vietnam tops a strong group

With the exceptions of China, Malaysia and Vietnam (assuming reported data is accurate in both) all of Asia has struggled with Covid-19 and most of the large population countries have concluded that the poverty caused by long-term lockdowns will caus...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 2 July 2020
Macro Analysis / Global

Asia: India and Indonesia riding up the Covid-19 curve

India was among the first countries in Asia to begin a nationwide lockdown on 25 March when officially recorded cases touched 500. But lockdown implementation was chaotic; announced just hours before it started, and dragging on with four extensions f...
ING Think
ING Think 2 July 2020