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Central, Eastern European EU member states face fiscal consolidation challenge

Containing debt-to-GDP ratios is crucial as funding costs and energy, defence spending rises. Most CEE-11 countries have improved public debt profiles in past decade. Relying too much on foreign debt exposes public finances to currency risk amid high...
Scope Ratings Levon
Levon Kameryan @ Scope Ratings 16 March 2023
Weekend Reading / Global

Declining Democracy

Risks to democracy back in the spotlight: eg Brazil, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Pakistan, Peru, Tunisia, Turkey. EIU Democracy scores significantly up in the last decade in merely 2 of the 15 most populous and investable EMs. Political risk i...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 18 February 2023
Declining Democracy
Declining Democracy

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples   In our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. W...
Vermilion Research David
David Nicoski @ Vermilion Research 24 January 2023

EEMEA Macro Flash - The NBH shrugs off political pressure

Today, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) left monetary-policy rates unchanged, as expected. The NBH doubled the mandatory reserve requirement to 10% and will reopen longer-term sterilization instruments, such as two-month deposits and one-week disco...
UniCredit Dan
Dan Bucşa @ UniCredit 24 January 2023

Europe-CIS EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook

Russia-Ukraine War remains central to any global risk analysis but Europe-CIS accounts for less than 2% of MSCI EM index. But the region looms large (almost 30% weight) in MSCI FM index: Kazakhstan (9%), Iceland (9%) and Romania (7%). Top picks: Hung...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 19 January 2023
Europe-CIS EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook
Europe-CIS EM equity strategy: 2023 outlook
Weekend Reading / Global

Top Picks and Untouchables in EM equity markets

A year ahead of stuttering and uneven growth, where no one sector or theme is likely to lead consistently. Top country picks: China, Taiwan, Korea, India in Large EM; Vietnam, Dubai, Hungary, Chile, Mauritius in Small EM and FM. Less preferred: Egypt...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 January 2023
Top Picks and Untouchables in EM equity markets
Top Picks and Untouchables in EM equity markets