Containing debt-to-GDP ratios is crucial as funding costs and energy, defence spending rises. Most CEE-11 countries have improved public debt profiles in past decade. Relying too much on foreign debt exposes public finances to currency risk amid high...

Risks to democracy back in the spotlight: eg Brazil, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Israel, Pakistan, Peru, Tunisia, Turkey. EIU Democracy scores significantly up in the last decade in merely 2 of the 15 most populous and investable EMs. Political risk i...

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples   In our January 10th Compass, we discussed that a break above 3910 on the S&P 500 would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, which is the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range. W...

Today, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) left monetary-policy rates unchanged, as expected. The NBH doubled the mandatory reserve requirement to 10% and will reopen longer-term sterilization instruments, such as two-month deposits and one-week disco...

Russia-Ukraine War remains central to any global risk analysis but Europe-CIS accounts for less than 2% of MSCI EM index. But the region looms large (almost 30% weight) in MSCI FM index: Kazakhstan (9%), Iceland (9%) and Romania (7%). Top picks: Hung...

A year ahead of stuttering and uneven growth, where no one sector or theme is likely to lead consistently. Top country picks: China, Taiwan, Korea, India in Large EM; Vietnam, Dubai, Hungary, Chile, Mauritius in Small EM and FM. Less preferred: Egypt...