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Morning Note / Russia

Alfa Morning Bulletin: 26 May 2020

Russian equities maintain momentum: Stocks in Europe advanced on Monday (StoxxEuro600 +1.5%) as investors weighed more signs of economies reopening around the world against the rise in US-China tensions. Trading activity was relatively light wit...
Alfa Alfa Equity Team
Alfa Equity Team @ Alfa 26 May 2020
Sovereign Analysis / Ukraine

Ukraine: IMF staff agreement on new SBA, funding needs still large

The IMF announced overnight that it had reached staff-level agreement (SLA) on a new programme for Ukraine, an 18-month Standby Arrangement (SBA) amounting to cUS$5bn (180% of quota). Board approval is expected in coming weeks (we suspect by mid-June...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 22 May 2020
Ukraine: IMF staff agreement on new SBA, funding needs still large – retain Buy
Equity Analysis / Russia

Alfa Weekly Radar: Easing of lockdowns to unlock new catalysts

Easing of lockdowns to unlock new catalystsMarkets struggled for direction last week: The world’s equity markets struggled for direction last week as investors contended with a constant wave of recording-breaking negative macro data and simmeri...
Alfa John Walsh
John Walsh @ Alfa 18 May 2020
Sovereign Analysis / Tajikistan

Tajikistan: V-shaped recovery forecast, but not all good news

We maintain our Hold recommendation on the TAJIKI 2027 bond. We downgraded to Hold from Buy on 10 March, on rising commercial borrowing costs and uncertainty over the financing outlook for the Rogun Dam project. The bond has been among the third...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 18 May 2020
Tajikistan: V-shaped recovery forecast, but not all good news
Weekend Reading / Global

Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets

Four Biden versus Trump foreign policy contrasts - multilateralism, trade, Iran, climate: all would be positive shifts for emerging market investorsThere appears to be very little difference between Biden, Trump and the US Congress on the description...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 16 May 2020
Biden's US foreign policy would be positive for Emerging Markets
Macro Analysis / Russia

Macro Insights: Russia lockdown – April figures takeaways

Available statistics paint a mixed picture of the Russian macro case in April. With energy consumption down only 2.5% y/y last month and railway loading declining by 5.9% y/y, we ascertain that the industrial sector has navigated this crisis relative...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 15 May 2020