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The countries most vulnerable to tight global financial conditions – in 2 charts

Last month, we recently counted 27 countries with US$ bonds yielding more than 10% or that are in default (28 today with the addition of Turkey), a decade high and more than double the number in December 2021 (13) and three times the number in Decemb...
Tellimer Research Patrick
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 29 June 2022
The countries most vulnerable to tight global financial conditions – in 2 charts
The countries most vulnerable to tight global financial conditions – in 2 charts

Deteriorating terms of trade explain the Kenyan shilling's weakness

Global bond yields have stabilised this morning it seems, if what is happening in the UST market is anything to go by. In the near term risks have shifted to the downside as investors price for lower economic dynamism across the globe. While inflatio...
ETM Analytics Kieran
Kieran Siney @ ETM Analytics 24 June 2022

African Eurobond yields are above peak-2020 levels

The USD has continued to edge lower this morning as markets digest the Fed’s 75bps rate hike and the forward guidance provided by Powell in the press conference accompanying the rate decision. The May reading surpassed consensus expectations of a ris...
ETM Analytics Kieran
Kieran Siney @ ETM Analytics 16 June 2022

FOMC rate decision to steal the show, East African countries ramp up spending

The direction of the USD and currency markets will depend on tonight’s FOMC rate decision and the forward guidance provided in the policy statement. Given how much is riding on the outcome of the FOMC meeting, we expect trade conditions to be thin to...
ETM Analytics Kieran
Kieran Siney @ ETM Analytics 15 June 2022

Political risks weigh on Kenyan assets, Egypt pays down $24bn in foreign debt

Gold slipped overnight following an announcement by the ECB that they plan to raise rates in July by 25 bpts and cease its asset purchase programme. The positive balance was mainly driven by an annualized trade surplus that widened to R360bn due to g...
ETM Analytics Kieran
Kieran Siney @ ETM Analytics 10 June 2022

Ghana's fiscal turnaround could take a decade, EMs suffer another outflow in May

A Russian airstrike hit a freight railcar repair factory in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, this is after Putin promised to facilitate the export of grain from Ukraine amid a worsening global food shortage and inflation crisis. To combat the issue of ...
ETM Analytics Kieran
Kieran Siney @ ETM Analytics 9 June 2022