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Sovereign Analysis / Egypt

Discussion with Egypt’s IMF Mission Chief

In July, we recommended Egyptian T-bills as one of our top trades for H2 (see here for the initial recommendation, and here for a more detailed analysis). Overall, the IMF views EGP as being fairly valued, with substantial firepower remaining at the...
Tellimer Research Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran @ Tellimer Research 8 October 2020
Discussion with Egypt’s IMF Mission Chief
Discussion with Egypt’s IMF Mission Chief
Macro Analysis / Global

EM sovereign bond issuance jumped in September but by less than expected

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance jumped to US$18bn in September, nearly 40% more than July and August combined, after the summer lull hit market activity (note, our figures exclude the Argentina and Ecuador restructuring). But it wasn't the b...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 1 October 2020
EM sovereign bond issuance jumped in September but by less than expected
EM sovereign bond issuance jumped in September but by less than expected
Strategy Note / Global

EM central bank firepower (in one chart)

Real interest rates (policy rate minus inflation) is one indicator of firepower (rate cuts) available to central banks. High real interest rates (above +2%) in the following countries (with GCC and Hong Kong US$ FX peg regimes excluded)......Indonesi...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 September 2020
EM central bank firepower (in one chart)
EM central bank firepower (in one chart)
Macro Analysis / Egypt

Egypt: Inflation hits almost 10-year low on food prices; stable interest rates

August inflation dropped to 3.6% YoY and fell by 0.3% MoM, compared to 4.6% YoY and 0.2% MoM in July 2020. Both on an annual and monthly basis, the contribution of all 11 non-food categories as a bulk to August’s inflation offset the contribution of...
Pharos Holding Sandy Eskaros
Sandy Eskaros @ Pharos Holding 10 September 2020
Egypt: August inflation hits 2nd lowest level in 10 years; stable interest rates
Egypt: August inflation hits 2nd lowest level in 10 years; stable interest rates
Strategy Note / Global

Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club

Near the end of an American Football game when the offensive team is desperate it will attempt a long pass with potentially heroic consequences but, generally low probability of success - the ‘Hail Mary’ play. It is perhaps too cynical an observation...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 August 2020
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Macro Analysis / Global

Chart of the WeekTourism Trauma and COVID-19

Pandemic-related lockdowns, flight cancellations, and border closures may be putting a crimp on summer vacation plans. However, the precipitous drop in tourism will have an outsized impact on countries that rely on foreign travelers—with potentially...
International Monetary Fund
IMF Blog 20 August 2020
Chart of the WeekTourism Trauma and COVID-19
Chart of the WeekTourism Trauma and COVID-19