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EM bonds post best monthly return in years in November although issuance slips

EM hard currency sovereign bond issuance slipped 20% to US$8bn in November. It brings total issuance to US$86bn ytd, still only half the amount seen in the same period last year. But late-year rally on new optimism over global rate outlook helps EM b...
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 1 December 2022
EM bonds post best monthly return in years in November although issuance slips
EM bonds post best monthly return in years in November although issuance slips

Colombia central bank not done yet as it hikes again

The central bank increased its policy rate by 100bps to 11% on 28 October, as expected, its 10th increase in this cycle. It brings the cumulative increase in this tightening cycle, which began 12 months ago, to 925bps. The bank responded to the rise....
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 31 October 2022
Colombia central bank not done yet as it hikes again
Colombia central bank not done yet as it hikes again

Colombia: Central bank delivers moderation but tightening cycle not yet over

Central bank hikes by a smaller than expected 100bps to 10% as it moderates its rate path. Cumulative increase in this cycle, which began twelve months ago, is 825bps. Inflation and inflation expectations have increased but central bank sees signs of...
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 30 September 2022
Colombia: Central bank delivers moderation but tightening cycle not yet over
Colombia: Central bank delivers moderation but tightening cycle not yet over
Weekend Reading / Global

The US dollar dagger for emerging markets

USD is expensive but its continued appreciation is a major headwind for local currency assets in emerging markets. There's some protection in EMs where the REER is below the historical average and the real interest rate is positive. Brazil exhibits b...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 10 September 2022
The US dollar dagger for emerging markets
The US dollar dagger for emerging markets

OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

100k barrels per day supply cut is small but a signal of intent after the oil price drop of c15% since end July. Compounds the issues of 1.6mbpd of under-production versus quota in August and under 2mbpd of spare Saudi-UAE capacity. We scan EM for ne...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 6 September 2022
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase
OPEC+: The major implications of a minor increase

Colombia: The challenges ahead for the new president

Colombia's leftist President-elect Gustavo Petro assumes office on Sunday (7 August), after his run-off victory on 19 June against the populist construction magnate Rodolfo Hernandez. However, that the central bank has also raised interest rates by a...
Tellimer Research Stuart
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 3 August 2022
Colombia: The challenges ahead for the new president
Colombia: The challenges ahead for the new president