Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...

Covid-19 second waves, the reliance on Saudi unilaterally shouldering the burden of marginal output restraint, and the fragile nature of Saudi-Russia cooperation tempers our optimism on oil relative to other commodities with secular demand drivers (e...

Colombia has drawn on its Flexible Credit Line (FCL) with the IMF in the amount of US$5.4bn (183% of quota), according to a statement by the IMF last night. In its statement, the IMF said the drawing "will help meet balance of payments needs and prov...

For manufacturing activities not easily replaced by automation or 3D printing, which countries win share from China? Low wages and scale matter most in this segment: We plot wage curve up to China in countries with over 40mn population. Labour flexib...

LATAM OFTEN DISPLAYS A DEGREE OF EXCEPTIONALISM COMPARED TO PEERS IN EM. Capital controls are also in place, which means fresh foreign capital can consider the ADR listings alone. However, without confidence that the creditor negotiations will resolv...

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...