For manufacturing activities not easily replaced by automation or 3D printing, which countries win share from China? Low wages and scale matter most in this segment: We plot wage curve up to China in countries with over 40mn population. Labour flexib...

LATAM OFTEN DISPLAYS A DEGREE OF EXCEPTIONALISM COMPARED TO PEERS IN EM. Capital controls are also in place, which means fresh foreign capital can consider the ADR listings alone. However, without confidence that the creditor negotiations will resolv...

In 2006 I was an analyst on global technology equities. This would be unwelcomed for the investment case given the military’s continuing, overbearing indirect grip on the economy and the strain put on the fiscal deficit from Covid-19 disruption. Equi...

Latin America and the Caribbean have become the new COVID-19 global epicenter. Brazil’s , real GDP is projected to fall by 9 percent in 2020 amid high uncertainty, followed by a rebound of 3.6 percent in 2021. Monetary policy is expected to loosen fu...

Both sides have enough financial capacity and sufficiently divergent goals to sustain the oil price war for some time (quarters, rather than months). But the goals of each side are not symmetrical. 4) Gaining Saudi (and wider GCC) cooperation on geop...

Higher market volatility during last week had its origin in the coronavirus effect vs. US economy´s positive outlook. During his speech at Congress this week, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell, signaled the economy continued on solid foota...