Venezuelan migrants are 3.6% of Colombia's population; President Duque is now legalising the undocumented portion. Problem is tougher for Chile (2%) and Peru (3%): legalisation curtails the undocumented economy but is politically risky. Other EMs wit...

Most would agree that economic stress, and specifically unemployment, breeds populism, and in extreme cases, radicalisation and insecurity. It is the EM echo of the message from Bill Clinton's 1992 election strategist James Carville, "It's the econom...

Neither is the bond market. But this one isn’t completely empty. Surpassing the last cyclical peak during Inflation Hysteria #1, it’s not just that fact but also the manner in which it has come about; a better than forty-five-degree angle shooting up...

Both advanced economies and emerging markets were hit hard in 2020. After the COVID crisis, however, some countries will do better than others in 2021. Emerging market bonds will offer a wider range of risk/return combinations in 2021 than in previou...

There are a number of elections of importance in smaller emerging and frontier markets in 2021. The general election, delayed by a year, on the pretext of Covid-19, is likely to occur in a highly sensitive political environment, as a result of the on...

Policy-led (both monetary and fiscal) increase in overall demand, particularly for infrastructure (in both the US and China), and a Covid-19 vaccine enabling a return to more normal economic activity. For those more bullish commodities, we depict bel...