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Brazil election risk: About how the loser concedes, not fiscal policy pivots

2 October election: Leftist Lula's opinion poll lead over rightist incumbent Bolsonaro has shrunk, but is still large. Both are likely equally populist, fiscally. The main uncertainty is whether Bolsonaro's exit will be orderly if he loses. Brazil to...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 18 September 2022
Brazil election risk: About how the loser concedes, not fiscal policy pivots
Brazil election risk: About how the loser concedes, not fiscal policy pivots
Weekend Reading / Global

The US dollar dagger for emerging markets

USD is expensive but its continued appreciation is a major headwind for local currency assets in emerging markets. There's some protection in EMs where the REER is below the historical average and the real interest rate is positive. Brazil exhibits b...
Tellimer Research Hasnain
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 10 September 2022
The US dollar dagger for emerging markets
The US dollar dagger for emerging markets

Payments fintechs: The costs and benefits of diversifying into lending

Payments fintechs have been growing rapidly and building large customer bases, but are often barely profitable. Diversification into lending activities can substantially lift revenue margins but also opens up fintechs to credit risk. Brazil’s StoneCo...
Tellimer Research Rohit
Rohit Kumar @ Tellimer Research 31 August 2022
Payments fintechs: The costs and benefits of diversifying into lending
Payments fintechs: The costs and benefits of diversifying into lending

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/t....
Vermilion Research David
David Nicoski @ Vermilion Research 30 August 2022

Digital payments: Scale is driving sector-beating operating margin expansion

Digital payments firms lead the emerging markets fintech scene. Our analysis of key performance metrics shows that payments fintechs have witnessed strong growth in operating profit and users, but their revenue growth has lagged other fintech sectors...
Tellimer Research Rahul
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 25 July 2022
Digital payments: Scale is driving sector-beating operating margin expansion
Digital payments: Scale is driving sector-beating operating margin expansion

Stripe slashes its valuation; other fintechs are likely to follow

Press reports indicate that Stripe has cut the internal valuation of its shares from US$40 per share to US$29 per share, equivalent to a US$74bn valuation of the firm. At the broader level, we note that EM tech shares are down 36% from their January ...
Tellimer Research Rahul
Rahul Shah @ Tellimer Research 15 July 2022
Stripe slashes its valuation; other fintechs are likely to follow
Stripe slashes its valuation; other fintechs are likely to follow