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Strategy Note / Global

Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)

GCC equities (MSCI GCC) broadly tracked the 10% increase in oil price over July and August 2020. Oil price has dropped 10% since the start of September but GCC equities are flat, implying higher risk near-term......given fiscal break-even oil prices...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 13 September 2020
Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)
Saudi and GCC: Recent oil price drop is a risk for equities (in one chart)
Strategy Note / Global

Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous

Bahrain's tiny size means its normalisation of ties with Israel (announced on 11 September) changes little apart from competition with freezones in the UAE for attracting Israeli firms seeking to address the GCC and regional market (with its exports...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 12 September 2020
Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous
Bahrain-Israel: Signal on Saudi intentions is ambiguous
Strategy Note / Global

Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club

Near the end of an American Football game when the offensive team is desperate it will attempt a long pass with potentially heroic consequences but, generally low probability of success - the ‘Hail Mary’ play. It is perhaps too cynical an observation...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 21 August 2020
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Hydrocarbon 'Hail Mary': Turkey joins the club
Company Analysis - Commissioned / Bahrain

Q2 2020 preview – Weak aluminium prices to reverse Q1 profits

Aluminium Bahrain (ALBA) will report Q2 20 results on 26 July 2020. We also estimate that Q2 20 cost of sales was 8% qoq lower owing to: (1) 8% qoq decline in the cost of raw materials (mainly alumina, which averaged US$277/tonne in Q2 20 versus US$3...
Tellimer Research Vahaj Ahmed
Vahaj Ahmed @ Tellimer Research 24 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

GCC Wealth & Diversification: Qatar's privilege (in one chart)

Low oil prices (and output) and Covid-19 disruption drive IMF to cut 2020/21 GDP forecasts by 3ppt/ 1ppt to -7.4%/+2.6%. Slow liberalisation, duplication, regional fragmentation, high citizen wages, FX pegs hinder the GCC's structural growth. Deep so...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 14 July 2020
Strategy Note / Global

GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress

The GCC-Levant region is split between those markets valued close to their historic average (Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi) and those at large discounts (Dubai, Jordan, Oman). Markets in the former group have been dominated in recent y...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 5 July 2020
GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress
GCC-Levant equity strategy: Old models under stress