Australia

Vice President Kamala Harris and Indonesian president Joko Widodo held preliminary talks in September to explore the potential for a critical mineral-specific free trade agreement (CMS-FTA) enabling the United States to import more Indonesi...

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed con...

Australia's retail sales rose by 0.9% in September, well above the 0.3% median projection of Bloomberg 's survey. The futures market now has a little more than a 50% chance of a hike next week. Japan's September employment report, retail sales, and industrial output figures will be reported tomorrow. China reports its October PMI tomorrow.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day drop today as the largest markets in the region, but Hong Kong and India rose. Europe's Stoxx 600 is trying to end its five-day slide, but it is struggling to maintain the early upside momentum. Japan's flash October PMI deteriorated. The market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia will stick with the hawkish hold at the November 7 meeting.

Management’s view of the industry—disappointing quarter in 3Q23. 2023-24 core profit forecasts downsized. Management cut 2023 new projects launch plan.

The dollar is mostly firmer today, though it is in a narrow range against the Japanese yen holding slightly below JPY150. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading the losses, following disappointing Australian jobs data and the broad risk-off mood. Among emerging market currencies, the South African rand and Mexican peso are the heaviest.

The risk that the war in Israel spreads remains palatable, and several observers have warned of the greatest risks of a world war in a generation. Still, the capital markets remain relatively calm. Weak Japanese industrial production data took local indices down by 1.5%-2.0%. China's CSI 300 was off nearly 1%, and nearly all the bourses in the region fell.

The markets remain unsettled. Follow-through dollar selling has been limited today after yesterday's pullback. Despite OPEC+ efforts (Saudi Arabia and Russia mostly) to support prices, November WTI continues to retrace last month's rise. Tomorrow, Japan's Achille's Heel will be shown.

Overview:  Dramatic yen price action around the JOLTS report yesterday after the dollar pierced the JPY150 level spurred speculation of BOJ intervention. Although there has been no confirmation, the strategic ambiguity is helping stead...

The 10-year Treasury is holding above 4.60% and nearing last week's high (4.68%). The two-year yield gapped higher and is near 5.10%. The Swiss franc is the only G10 currency holding its own against the dollar today. Among emerging market currencies, three currencies are slightly firmer.

Despite yesterday's sharp losses in the US, equities are trading higher today. The beleaguered yen and yuan are consolidating near their recent lows. Gold has been sold below $1900 for the first time this month. News is light from Japan and China today, where intervention watch is on high alert.

A 9.1% increase in motor fuel prices lifted the transport component by 3.6% MoM. With rising inflation, comes a rise in excise duties. That resulted in an August jump in the price of booze and tobacco. But that won't reoccur again until next February, so this component is likely to be much flatter in September.

Dollar-bloc currencies enjoy a firmer tone. Emerging market currencies are mostly firmer, including the Chinese yuan. Reports that Beijing is considering reducing some capital controls helped lift Chinese and Hong Kong equities today. Europe's Stoxx 600 is extending yesterday's 1.3% drop, while US index futures are slightly higher.

The US dollar is trading with afirmer bias against all the G10 currencies ahead today's August US CPI report. The dollar rose to a marginal newhigh for the week against the Japanese yen, as the market seemed uninspired by the cabinet reshuffle. The Chinese yuan has stabilizedamid a continued liquidity squeeze in Hong Kong. All the large markets in the Asia Pacific region fell today, with Taiwan andIndia the notable exceptions.

Overview:  Bonds and stocks are mostly heavier today&nbspand the dollar has turned mixed. Oil prices are consolidating after soaring to&nbspnew highs since late last year on the longer than expected extension of Saudi&nbspArabia's extra cut o...

Disappointing data in Asia and Europe has sent the greenback broadly higher. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been hit the hardest (-0.7% to -1.25%) but all the G10 currencies are down. Most of the large Asia Pacific bourses were under pressure, though Japan, Taiwan, and India posted small gains.

The yuan is snapping a four-week decline and the CSI 300 halted a three-week drop. Some economists estimate that the bevy of measures may be worth as much as 1% for GDP. The dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the US employment data, which is expected to see the pace of job growth slow to around 170k.

The dollar staged a major technical reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs report than expected. Follow-through selling of the dollar has been limited in Asia and the European morning. The euro and sterling are firm, but the other G10 currencies are mostly softer.

Weekly summary of Vermilion's global technical equity strategy calls, including sector weightings, from both a top down and bottoms up perspective.

The US-Japan-Korea trilateral is another reminder that China is losing out in the friction with the US. And that the opportune moment for a quick and successful Taiwan invasion is a long way off. Invasion bets (HK dollar or TSMC collapse) are based o...

The yen has recovered a bit after the BOJ stepped in and bought JGBs for the second time this week at market prices. The US 10-year Treasury reached 4.16% today, its highest level since last November. September WTI posted a key downside reversal yesterday and follow-through selling took it to about $78.70 today (yesterday's peak was almost $82.50).

Ghana eurobonds up 6.6% as markets digest the government's mid-term budget review. Govt committed to consolidation. Lebanon eurobonds up 3%, reaching levels not seen since August 2022. New BdL governor to begin talks on currency float. Argentina euro...

Bank of Japan took the market by surprise with its adjustment of the cap on the 10-year yield before the weekend. The move helped lift the dollar to JPY142.50 from where it had settled on Friday (~JPY141.15). The dollar is mostly softer, however, with only the yen and Swiss franc weaker. The Australian dollar is leading the other currencies higher ahead of tomorrow RBA meeting.

China has massively pushed electric vehicle (EV) sales in recent years. This has helped to further develop the battery supply chain. In 2022, 35% of exported electric cars came from China, according to the IEA. China’s dominant role in battery metals supply chains, as well as export restrictions in other countries, risk slowing the pace of EV adoption.

The coming week sees policy meetings at the FOMC, ECB and bank of Japan all preceded by the release of US, Eurozone and Japanese flash PMI data for July. The Bank of England no doubt also keeping a close eye on the UK flash numbers. The focus next week is expected to be split between corporate earnings, monetary policy and macro data following a week where the attention had been dominated by earnings optimism.