Americas

Ethiopia seals bilateral debt service suspension deal, raises hopes of IMF deal and larger debt relief talks next year. Sri Lanka's eurobonds surge 1.9% on bilateral debt deal, IMF review hope; China deal and bondholder proposal progress. Venezuela r...

Venezuela: US govt does not see progress regarding Barbados agreements. Dominican Republic’s Central Bank cuts rates by 25bps to 7% on a more favourable global backdrop. Panamanian UEP Penomone II (UEPSOL) reports slight y-o-y recovery thanks to El N...

Shorter notes seem cheaper in both the Sovereign and PDVSA curves despite recent positive developments. Our debt restructuring proposal suggests upside on bond prices under subjective assumptions. Price rally from EMBI re-weighting might be fully off...

Sri Lanka seals US$5.9bn official creditor deal prompting IMF review hope; slight eurobond rise amid broader EM rally. Markets price US rate cuts, 10-year yields fall; EM bonds gain 0.8%, near ytd highs amid US rate decline support. Ecuador's eurobon...

Argentina’s President-elect Milei confirms Luis “Toto” Caputo as his economics minister. Guatemala: Banguat holds rates at 5.00%, hints at an extension of the rate pause. Argentina’s energy secretary awarded a total of 3,340 MW of new thermal capacit...

Pakistan's eurobonds gain 0.9% after LNG deal mitigating power outage risks; post-IMF review optimism. Lebanon's eurobonds -1.3% to all-time low; Israel-Hamas truce brings pause in border fighting but reforms remain distant. Panama's court ruling cha...

Panama: Supreme Court rules mining contract unconstitutional on environmental grounds. Ecuador’s Noboa submits tax reform to Congress in a bid to raise 0.7% of GDP in additional revenues. Ecuador: International Airport Finance (QUIPOR) reports strong...

Peru: Executive and Attorney General mutually accuse of serious crimes. Bolivia: Evo Morales challenges President Arce to compete in primary elections. Aris Mining (ARISCN) boosts by 75% its mineral reserves at its main operating asset Segovia mine.

Israel's high-duration eurobonds gain 0.9% after US 10y fall; ceasefire extension; rates paused, potential easing ahead. Armenia's eurobonds up 0.7%; Blinken talks support peace amid Azerbaijan tensions after regional takeover. Argentina's eurobonds...

On November 22, MVST’s chairman posted videos on his LinkedIn account showing significant activity in the factory. We sent people to the plant to verify and found that the company does, in fact, have many employees, but, based on our research, nowh...

Milei has pledged to meet debt repayments. Maturities are relatively light in 2024 but there is a big rise in 2025. Observers think Argentina will struggle to meet those 2025 obligations.

Argentina's eurobond rally continues +5.7% Friday, +28.8% mtd; Milei shifted tone last week, reiterate Hold. Belarus eurobonds rise 1.3% after Russian central bank creates BYN repayment mechanism for Russian bondholders. El Salvador's eurobonds dip 0...

We highlight the 10 best- and 10 worst-performing EM stocks based on share price change this year. South Korea’s EcoPro, Taiwan’s Wistron and Taiwan’s Quanta Computer top the list of the best-performing stocks. China's Li-Ning, JD.com and Meituan top...

Turkey's central bank unexpectedly hikes rates by 500bps to 40%, more than 250bps expected, aiding policy normalisation. China boosts lending to property firms, easing liquidity; property woes to persist as credit shifts to manufacturing. President R...

Daniel Noboa was sworn in yesterday as the new President of Ecuador. S&P lowers Bolivia's long-term ratings to CCC+ from B-. Argentine CGC (CGCSA) reported a solid 3Q23 EBITDA on the back of higher production and prices.

Uncertainty on the fiscal path stokes concern on debt sustainability, while fiscal consolidation looks unlikely in 2024. But the plunge in prices in early November opened some opportunities under a restructuring scenario. We uphold our OW and prefer...

India is a key ally for the US in its efforts to contain China in Asia and that is very unlikely to change any time soon. But US disclosure of an alleged Indian plot to assassinate Sikh separatist on US soil is another strain. Adds to friction on all...

Sri Lanka eurobonds +2.3% post-sell-off; IMF awaits official creditor assurances after China's ExIm debt details shared. Argentina post-Milei win rally continues, +1.7% yesterday; Milei distances himself from Ocampo and dollarisation. Oman eurobonds...

Paraguay: Central bank accelerates easing pace and cuts rate by 50bps to 7.25%. We close our trade idea LONG COSTAR 45s - SHORT GUATEMALA 41s with a 14.3 CAGR since 11-Oct. Costa Rican toll road operator Autopistas del Sol (AUTSOL) 3Q23 brings no sur...

Argentina eurobonds +3.4%, Hold reiterated amid Milei policy uncertainty; banks reopen, post-election fears ease. Pakistan's eurobond +2.7%, +11.6% mtd fuelled by IMF review, potential for additional loan and improved BoP data. EM eurobonds rise 0.6%...

Ecuador: Finance minister-designate Moya reportedly resigned two days before taking office. Jamaica: The BOJ held the monetary policy rate at 7.0%. Colombian Aris Mining (ARISCN) 26s still an outlier despite last month’s rally.

Venezuela referendum on annexing Essequibo region of Guyana: a territorial dispute dating back to the British Empire. Alongside agreement to lay groundwork for free elections in 2024, Venezuela's opposition committed to Essequibo claims. Military con...

We think the majority of MVST’s sales may be fake. MVST’s Chinese customers account for 57% of revenue in 2023, but the China factory shows almost no activity. Our drone videos and photos confirm that. MVST China has disappeared from Chinese proc...