Global Macro

Abortion rights in Emerging Markets and what it means for ESG
Weekend Reading /
United States of America

Abortion rights in Emerging Markets and what it means for ESG

Tellimer Research
Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik  @ Tellimer Research
2 July 2022
Sovereign Analysis /
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's restructuring is off to a rocky start
Patrick Curran
1 July 2022
Strategy Note /
Global
The profitability of emerging markets fintechs
Rohit Kumar
1 July 2022
Strategy Note /
Global
Emerging-Frontier Equity Monthly – June: US recession fear, China reopening hope
Hasnain Malik
30 June 2022
Strategy Note /
Global
Tellimer's top picks: July 2022
Tellimer Research Team
30 June 2022
Latest in Global Macro
Macro Analysis /
Global

The countries most vulnerable to tight global financial conditions – in 2 charts

Last month, we recently counted 27 countries with US$ bonds yielding more than 10% or that are in default (28 today with the addition of Turkey), a decade high and more than double the number in December 2021 (13) and three times the number in Decemb...

Tellimer Research
Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran  @ Tellimer Research
29 June 2022
Strategy Note /
Russia

Russia wakes up to sovereign default

Russia has reportedly finally fallen into default on its foreign debt today, barring a last-minute surprise, as the 30-day grace period for coupons on two sovereign bonds (US$ '26s and EUR '36s) that were due on 27 May expired on 26 June (Sunday) wit...

Tellimer Research
Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse  @ Tellimer Research
27 June 2022
Global Themes /
Global

What investors are thinking: Takeaways from our UK roadshow

We held a series of client meetings in London over the past fortnight, seeing over 20 clients, consisting of a mix of fixed income and equity investors in EM and Frontiers, Africa specialists, and special situations and distress funds. The meetings t...

Tellimer Research
Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran  @ Tellimer Research
30 June 2022
Macro Analysis /
Nigeria

Nigeria's oil recovery target sounds too good to be true

At the end of last week, Nigeria's oil minister announced that the country is increasing oil production and has set a target to meet OPEC quota by August. The obvious question is why wait until Nigeria's production has dropped over 1mbpd lower than i...

Tellimer Research
Janet Ogunkoya
Janet Ogunkoya  @ Tellimer Research
28 June 2022
Macro Analysis /
United States of America

US economy: IMF warns over inflation risks but economy to avoid recession

The IMF published its concluding statement following the 2022 Article IV mission for the United States on 24 June, providing a timely update on the state of the US economy. But, despite the more hawkish interest rate path than the market, the IMF sti...

Tellimer Research
Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse  @ Tellimer Research
28 June 2022
Sovereign Analysis /
Ecuador

Ecuador protests overshadow IMF programme review

The IMF Board approved the combined fourth and fifth reviews of Ecuador’s extended fund facility (EFF) on 24 June. It follows the announcement of staff-level agreement on 11 May and so is not unexpected. That said, despite the good news on the IMF pr...

Tellimer Research
Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse  @ Tellimer Research
27 June 2022
Strategy Note /
Global

Inflation, interest rates and the margin-cost trade-off for EM banks

Margins are likely to widen as interest rates rise (positive). Loan quality will likely deteriorate due to weaker debt servicing capacity and lower collateral values (negative). Items 3-5 will take effect later in the cycle and we will return to thes...

Tellimer Research
Rahul Shah
Rahul Shah  @ Tellimer Research
29 June 2022
Strategy Note /
Global

BNPL is now on the regulatory radar, good for its long-term sustainability

Since aggressive BNPL growth is putting both consumers and companies at risk, regulators in different markets are increasingly hatching plans to regulate the sector. Recently, regulators in some leading BNPL markets have shown intentions to bring the...

Tellimer Research
Rohit Kumar
Rohit Kumar  @ Tellimer Research
27 June 2022
Strategy Note /
Global

Tellimer's top picks: July 2022

Nigerian bonds have sold off sharply this year, with the spread on the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Nigeria Index rising by 327bps ytd through 17 June versus a 105bps rise in the Aggregate Index. Nigeria’s sell-off has been surpassed only by those of Tunis...

Tellimer Research
Tellimer Research Team
Tellimer Research Team  @ Tellimer Research
30 June 2022
Sovereign Analysis /
Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's restructuring is off to a rocky start

Amid the ongoing market rout and a worsening economic crisis at home, Sri Lanka’s eurobonds have continued to plummet to below 33 cents on the dollar, excluding the 22s, 25s, 26s (more on this later). We maintain our Hold recommendation for Sri Lanka...

Tellimer Research
Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran  @ Tellimer Research
1 July 2022

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