Global Macro

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Fed hikes but fails to convince markets that rates can hold at 5% at year-end
Macro Analysis /
United States of America

Fed hikes but fails to convince markets that rates can hold at 5% at year-end

Tellimer Research
Jamie Fallon
Jamie Fallon  @ Tellimer Research
23 March 2023
Sovereign Analysis /
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values
Patrick Curran
22 March 2023
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Strategy Note /
Thailand
Thailand election: Shinawatra leads the polls but military holds the aces
Hasnain Malik
22 March 2023
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Strategy Note /
Global
EM sovereign bonds: Winners and losers amid market weakness
Stuart Culverhouse
21 March 2023
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Strategy Note /
Global
Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels
Hasnain Malik
21 March 2023
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Latest in Global Macro
Macro Analysis /
United States of America

Fed hikes but fails to convince markets that rates can hold at 5% at year-end

The Fed shot down last week’s expectations of a pause, but recession risks raise the odds of a dovish pivot by Q4 22. We anticipate more near-term US inflation upside, making it difficult for the Fed to pivot before H2 23. More than ever, EMs are cau...

Tellimer Research
Jamie Fallon
Jamie Fallon  @ Tellimer Research
23 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Fed delivers a 25bps hike, Fitch upgrades Ghana’s local currency debt rating

Forex: Nigerian naira devaluation looms. Fixed Income: Fitch upgrades Ghana’s local currency bond rating. Macroeconomic: The World Bank approves a $7bn economic support plan for Egypt.

ETM Analytics
Alexa Archibald
Alexa Archibald  @ ETM Analytics
23 March 2023
Sovereign Analysis /
Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka: Debt sustainability analysis affirms recovery values

On 20 March the IMF Board approved a new US$3bn, 48-month EFF for Sri Lanka and published the accompanying DSA. There is a lot of ambiguity in the DSA and it is not the end of the road, but we update our recovery value assumptions. Recovery values of...

Tellimer Research
Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran  @ Tellimer Research
22 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Mexico: Timely Indicator of Economic Activity–Strength at the start of the year

January’s estimate was unchanged at 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y sa), with services higher despite lower dynamism in industry. For February they see +0.3% m/m (3.5% y/y sa), with increases in both industry and services. Today’s results suggest that activity st...

Banorte
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal  @ Banorte
22 March 2023
Strategy Note /
Thailand

Thailand election: Shinawatra leads the polls but military holds the aces

Shinawatra party opinion poll lead widens before 14 May election but military effectively controls government formation. Prospects of structural reform are low and youth protest risk persists. But tourism pick up, oil price fall and valuation all fav...

Tellimer Research
Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik  @ Tellimer Research
22 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Nigeria and Morocco hiked rates by 50bps while Angola cut rates by 100bps

Forex: The forward market is signaling another devaluation in the Egyptian pound. Fixed Income: Bank of Angola cuts rates as inflation falls back toward single digit territory. Macroeconomic: Nigeria and Morocco both hiked rates by 50bps on Tuesday.

ETM Analytics
Alexa Archibald
Alexa Archibald  @ ETM Analytics
22 March 2023
Strategy Note /
Global

Thai: Thai Market Strategy -Peer across the valley…to a more welcoming landscape

Rocky ride to the top. Planets aligning for emerging markets and Thailand. Global relocation trends/investment flows & peaking interest rates.

Bualuang Securities
Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua  @ Bualuang Securities
22 March 2023
Strategy Note /
Global

EM sovereign bonds: Winners and losers amid market weakness

EM spreads have widened due to banking sector-led market weakness, with the index back to levels seen last autumn. High yield has suffered most and will likely continue to underperform, despite pockets of value forming among frontiers. But there is n...

Tellimer Research
Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse  @ Tellimer Research
21 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Sri Lanka

Understanding IMF’s working paper on the domestic debt restructuring framework

The IMF's paper gives insight into how they may think of domestic debt restructuring, though interpretations can vary. Recommends considering the maximum possible debt relief due to recapitalization costs before the benefits are outweighed. Beyond re...

Frontier Research
Chayu Damsinghe
Chayu Damsinghe  @ Frontier Research
21 March 2023
Strategy Note /
Global

Oil price has erased all of the Russia-Ukraine premium, back to end-2021 levels

Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...

Tellimer Research
Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik  @ Tellimer Research
21 March 2023

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