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The Fed shot down last week’s expectations of a pause, but recession risks raise the odds of a dovish pivot by Q4 22. We anticipate more near-term US inflation upside, making it difficult for the Fed to pivot before H2 23. More than ever, EMs are cau...
Forex: Nigerian naira devaluation looms. Fixed Income: Fitch upgrades Ghana’s local currency bond rating. Macroeconomic: The World Bank approves a $7bn economic support plan for Egypt.
On 20 March the IMF Board approved a new US$3bn, 48-month EFF for Sri Lanka and published the accompanying DSA. There is a lot of ambiguity in the DSA and it is not the end of the road, but we update our recovery value assumptions. Recovery values of...
January’s estimate was unchanged at 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y sa), with services higher despite lower dynamism in industry. For February they see +0.3% m/m (3.5% y/y sa), with increases in both industry and services. Today’s results suggest that activity st...
Shinawatra party opinion poll lead widens before 14 May election but military effectively controls government formation. Prospects of structural reform are low and youth protest risk persists. But tourism pick up, oil price fall and valuation all fav...
Forex: The forward market is signaling another devaluation in the Egyptian pound. Fixed Income: Bank of Angola cuts rates as inflation falls back toward single digit territory. Macroeconomic: Nigeria and Morocco both hiked rates by 50bps on Tuesday.
Rocky ride to the top. Planets aligning for emerging markets and Thailand. Global relocation trends/investment flows & peaking interest rates.
EM spreads have widened due to banking sector-led market weakness, with the index back to levels seen last autumn. High yield has suffered most and will likely continue to underperform, despite pockets of value forming among frontiers. But there is n...
The IMF's paper gives insight into how they may think of domestic debt restructuring, though interpretations can vary. Recommends considering the maximum possible debt relief due to recapitalization costs before the benefits are outweighed. Beyond re...
Growth and banking fears plunge oil price back to end-2021 level of low US$70s; we chart trade exposure across EM and DM. Next OPEC ministerial committee meeting in early April with full meeting on 4 June; higher probability of new output cut. Saudi,...
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