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Last month, we recently counted 27 countries with US$ bonds yielding more than 10% or that are in default (28 today with the addition of Turkey), a decade high and more than double the number in December 2021 (13) and three times the number in Decemb...
Russia has reportedly finally fallen into default on its foreign debt today, barring a last-minute surprise, as the 30-day grace period for coupons on two sovereign bonds (US$ '26s and EUR '36s) that were due on 27 May expired on 26 June (Sunday) wit...
We held a series of client meetings in London over the past fortnight, seeing over 20 clients, consisting of a mix of fixed income and equity investors in EM and Frontiers, Africa specialists, and special situations and distress funds. The meetings t...
At the end of last week, Nigeria's oil minister announced that the country is increasing oil production and has set a target to meet OPEC quota by August. The obvious question is why wait until Nigeria's production has dropped over 1mbpd lower than i...
The IMF published its concluding statement following the 2022 Article IV mission for the United States on 24 June, providing a timely update on the state of the US economy. But, despite the more hawkish interest rate path than the market, the IMF sti...
The IMF Board approved the combined fourth and fifth reviews of Ecuador’s extended fund facility (EFF) on 24 June. It follows the announcement of staff-level agreement on 11 May and so is not unexpected. That said, despite the good news on the IMF pr...
Margins are likely to widen as interest rates rise (positive). Loan quality will likely deteriorate due to weaker debt servicing capacity and lower collateral values (negative). Items 3-5 will take effect later in the cycle and we will return to thes...
Since aggressive BNPL growth is putting both consumers and companies at risk, regulators in different markets are increasingly hatching plans to regulate the sector. Recently, regulators in some leading BNPL markets have shown intentions to bring the...
Nigerian bonds have sold off sharply this year, with the spread on the Bloomberg EM Sovereign Nigeria Index rising by 327bps ytd through 17 June versus a 105bps rise in the Aggregate Index. Nigeria’s sell-off has been surpassed only by those of Tunis...
Amid the ongoing market rout and a worsening economic crisis at home, Sri Lanka’s eurobonds have continued to plummet to below 33 cents on the dollar, excluding the 22s, 25s, 26s (more on this later). We maintain our Hold recommendation for Sri Lanka...
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