Macro Analysis /
Global

Ahead of the Curve

Banxico’s monetary policy decision (March 30th). 2024 Preliminary Policy Criteria. Trade surplus in February, in line with historical patterns.

Banorte
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal  @ Banorte
24 March 2023
Strategy Note /
Global

Firebreak

The early demise of SVB & CS might act as a firebreak to fears Central Banks may over tighten & crush the entire economy. Away from banking other segments of the US Econ are acting better: housing has bottomed, supply chains have unsnarled. Bears mus...

TPW Advisory
Jay Pelosky
Jay Pelosky  @ TPW Advisory
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

US Banks: The good and the bad

It's been two weeks since Silicon Valley Bank went down. The question now is where are we. And more important, where are. we going to. When Lehman Brothers went down on 15 September 2008 we were already at a deep stage of the subprime crisis.

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

The Other Conflict on Europe’s Doorstep

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are rising again, raising the prospect of another war. In clear violation of a 2020 ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan is fueling a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh. With Russia unable or unwilling to help,...

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Mexico: GDP-proxy IGAE – Strong result in January, driven by services

Activity in January rose 0.6% m/m (+4.4% y/y), with a strong push from services (+1.2% m/m) and stable industry (0.0%). We believe the result is positive, building up on the momentum seen at the end of last year. We expect GDP in 1Q23 to have kept gr...

Banorte
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal  @ Banorte
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Czech Republic

Czech National Bank preview: No action, with a preference for stability

The Czech National Bank’s monetary policy meeting next week is unlikely to bring a change in the interest rate. We expect the CNB 2-week repo rate will remain flat at 7%, where it has remained since the last hike in June 2022. CNB board members recen...

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Let the Banks Burn

The banking system we take for granted is unfixable. We no longer need to rely on any private, rent-seeking, socially destabilizing network of banks, at least not the way we have so far. Back then, we could blame banks’ sequential collapse on wholesa...

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

Key events in developed markets next week

Following the Fed’s 25bp rate rise this week, we will be listening out for officials' latest views on where the risks lie. Central bankers continue to argue that financial stability policy measures and price stability measures should be viewed separa...

ING Think
ING Think  @ ING Think
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast—March 2023

Marco Del Negro, Aidan Gleich, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Sikata Sengupta       This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) m...

Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal Reserve Bank of New York  @ Federal Reserve Bank of New York
24 March 2023
Macro Analysis /
Global

How China Benefits from Another US Banking Crisis

We are witnessing a potentially lethal interplay between two sources of tension: a financial crisis and a geostrategic crisis. The outcome is likely to be greater than the sum of the parts. The failure of SVB is symptomatic of a far bigger problem: a...

Project Syndicate
Project Syndicate  @ Project Syndicate
24 March 2023
Show More Articles
Parsel
Parsel extraction
AI-powered data extraction for your PDFs
Schedule a demo

This morning's briefing

thumbnail
EM sovereign bonds: Winners and losers amid market weakness. The unfolding US and European banking crisis and ensuing flight to safety has hit EM sovereign bonds, much as we expected. Since 7 March, when Silicon Valley Bank's problems began to emerge, the spread on the Bloomberg EM Sovereign USD index has widened by 58bps (from 391bps to 449bps). The spread, up c50bps YTD, is now back to its levels from early November. Within the index, the main losers – those countries that have seen the largest widening in spreads – essentially consist of special situations, with defaulted sovereigns (Lebanon, Zambia, Sri Lanka, and Ghana) and distressed (Pakistan) suffering the most. Click here for more.  Get the full story →
thumbnail
Ukraine's new IMF programme to help mobilise concessional financing. The IMF announced this week that it had reached staff-level agreement with the authorities on a new programme, a 48-month extended fund facility for an amount of US$15.6bn (577% of quota). Board approval is expected in the coming weeks. The announcement had been expected and follows the successful completion last month of a monitoring arrangement. Ukraine's new programme has been designed in line with the Fund's new policy on lending under exceptionally high uncertainty, and the statement notes that strong financing assurances are expected from donors, including the G7 and EU. Although details are sparse at this early stage (we await board approval and the publication of the staff report), the new programme is expected to help mobilise large-scale concessional financing from donors.  Get the full story →
thumbnail
The countries most vulnerable to sustained lower oil prices. Global growth and banking fears have sent oil prices back to end-2021 levels this week – the low US$70s per barrel – considerably lower than the Bloomberg consensus at the beginning of this year (average Brent of US$94 in 2023) and the average of US$99 in 2022. The average ytd is US$83 per barrel. The country impact will depend in part on the extent to which oil prices differ from budgeted figures. For oil exporting sovereigns in our coverage universe, countries with pre-existing vulnerabilities (such as Nigeria) or financing concerns (like Ecuador) appear to be the most vulnerable to any sustained period of lower oil prices, and a consequent decline in fiscal revenues. Angola also has limited space to absorb lower oil prices. Get the full story →
thumbnail
Shinawatras dominate polls ahead of Thailand's election. The opinion poll leads of Paetongtarn 'Ung Ing' Shinawatra, a scion of the Shinawatra political dynasty, and the Pheu Thai political party, that the Shinawatras dominate, have widened as the election approaches – announced yesterday as 14 May. However, an electoral victory in no way guarantees that Pheu Thai run the next government. The military retains the upper hand in terms of its constitutional power to sway the selection of the next prime minister. Get the full story →
World Bank approves US$7bn economic support plan for Egypt. The medium-term outlook for Egypt is looking rosier as it continues to secure external economic support. The latest support came in the form of a new Country Partnership Framework for fiscal years 2023-27 from the World Bank. The framework will be supported by US$7bn in lending over the five-year period. This comes on the back of cUS$20bn in investment from Gulf allies as well as US$3bn from the IMF to help the government meet its budget and balance of payment requirements, and cope with the rapidly deteriorating economic conditions. Get the full story →
thumbnail
Fed raises interest rate amid banking turmoil. The US Fed raised its key interest rate by 25bps yesterday as expected, its ninth consecutive hike and the highest rate since 2007. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the targeted policy tools had dealt with the recent financial sector stress following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, leaving interest rate policy free to continue the inflation fight. The unfolding US banking crisis and ensuing flight to safety had hit EM sovereign bonds, much as we expected. The more dovish FOMC decision yesterday may help to stem the tide, although we think it is too soon to call the end to this round of global volatility.  Get the full story →

Chart of the week

See all

Analysts

Alexa Archibald
Alexa Archibald

Ethiopia, Uganda and Zambia face potential credit rating action this evening

Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik

Thailand election: Shinawatra leads the polls but military holds the aces

Patrick Curran
Patrick Curran

Nigeria: Tinubu’s key economic challenges and policy plans

Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse

Ukraine: IMF announces staff-level agreement on a new programme

Iyad Khalid Ghulam
Iyad Khalid Ghulam

Nahdi Medical FY 22 Earnings Call | Wednesday 22 Mar 23 | Hosted by SNB Capital

Juan Carlos Alderete Macal
Juan Carlos Alderete Macal

Ahead of the Curve

Chayu Damsinghe
Chayu Damsinghe

Understanding IMF’s working paper on the domestic debt restructuring framework

Most Viewed