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Strategy Note / China

The Dollar leads Emerging Markets equities: The veteran's mantra

The mantra that I have heard in emerging markets is that any pitch for funds from asset allocators gets off the ground much more easily when everyone in the room (I guess, these days, I should say "on the call") agrees that the outlook for...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 29 May 2020
The Dollar leads Emerging Markets equities: The veteran's mantra
Strategy Note / Global

China and India: Himalayan friction matters

As military friction renews between China and India in the Himalayan region separating the two countries, we offer the following context and tentative conclusions:(1) Skirmishes and tension, not war – An extensive, full-blown war is extremely u...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 28 May 2020
China and India: Himalayan friction matters
Macro Analysis / Global

IMF emergency financing tracker: Where are Angola, Belize, Suriname and Zambia?

Our updated tracker* captures 76 countries that we know of so far that have either sought, or are seeking, emergency help from the IMF or have made drawings under their existing arrangements, or are seeking new ones, in response to the Covid-19 pande...
Tellimer Research Stuart Culverhouse
Stuart Culverhouse @ Tellimer Research 27 May 2020
IMF emergency financing tracker: Where are Angola, Belize, Suriname and Zambia?
Strategy Note / Global

Frontier-EM Equity Monthly: May – Odd dispersion as most underperform mega tech

Dispersion but with no clear pattern. In May, the global macroeconomic backdrop saw a continuation of trends visible in April: ramped up economic policy stimulus (fiscal spend, monetary easing, debt issuance and assistance), phased re-opening of the...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 27 May 2020
Frontier-EM Equity Monthly: May – Odd dispersion as most underperform mega tech
Macro Analysis / Global

Russia Macro Insights: Revising down GDP forecast on weak April retail trade

Retail trade dropped 23.4% y/y in April, well below the 18% y/y market consensus: Retail trade dropped by 23.4% y/y in April, well below our 15% y/y expectation and the 18% y/y consensus forecast. This figure was also worse than the 20.5% y/y decline...
Alfa Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova @ Alfa 27 May 2020
Russia Macro Insights: Revising down GDP forecast on weak April retail trade
Strategy Note / Global

China devaluation another US-China friction and a risk for rival exporters

China's fixed Renminbi rate has depreciated 0.7% in the last month, 2.6% ytd, 3.3% in the last year, 8% in the last 5 years.Related readingGeopolitics after Covid-19: US-China cold war, fragmented EU and GCCChina and Hong Kong: 'One country,...
Tellimer Research Hasnain Malik
Hasnain Malik @ Tellimer Research 26 May 2020
China devaluation another US-China friction and a risk for rival exporters