Krungthai Card PCL

Result was in line with our projection. KTC posted 3Q23 earnings of Bt1.9bn. Our 2023 earnings projection stands unchanged at Bt7.3bn.

Slow recovery to persist into 3Q23. LLPs look set to remain heavy into 2024. Below-norm earnings growth to persist into 4Q23.

Result was in line with our projection. KTC posted 2Q23 earnings of Bt1.8bn. Lending at end-June totaled Bt105.6bn.

2Q23 NPAT likely to miss our previous estimate by 5%. 2H23 LLP outlook remains high HoH …. …so we have cut our 2023-25 earnings forecasts.

4Q22 earnings projected to rise 18% YoY (flattish QoQ). Ongoing lending and non-NII growth in 2023. Recommendations under base-case scenario.

Result was in line with our projection. KTC posted 4Q22 earnings of Bt1.67bn. Lending expanded 6.7% QoQ during 4Q22.

Opportunities and challenges for KTC, MTC, and SAWAD. The stock prices of lenders to unbanked markets. -.

Profit was in line with our expectation. KTC posted 3Q22 earnings of Bt1.77bn. Lending had expanded 2.0% QoQ as of end-Sep 2022.

Fincos’ stocks prices have dived this year. Is non-bankable finance space still good a mid-term investment? Fair values under worst-case scenario.

Ongoing strong credit card spending and personal loan expansion. New product—title loans (scope for fast growth with KTB’s help). Strong earnings outlook, despite heavier marketing expenses.

Fact 1: Strong credit card spending and personal loan expansion. Fact 2: New product—title loans. Fact 3: Fair valuation compared with peers.

Earnings were 7% below our estimate. KTC posted a 3Q21 profit of Bt1.3bn. Gross loans were up 3.2% YoY at end-Sep 2021.

Earnings were 11% above our estimate. KTC posted a 2Q21 profit of Bt1.7bn. Pre-provision operating profit was Bt2.4bn.

2Q21 earnings should mark growth of 31.9% YoY (down 7.2% QoQ). 3Q21 profit expansion of 15.9% YoY expected (down 6.7% QoQ). 2021 earnings projected at Bt6.2bn, up 16.4% YoY.

Profit was in line with estimate. KTC posted 1Q21 earnings of Bt1.6bn. Pre-provision operating profit was Bt2.4bn.

KTC’s share price has shot up to 43% above our YE21 target price, pushing its 2021 PER up to 30x (2.5SDs above its long-term mean). We don’t see any justification for such a high valuation, so have shifted down our call from BUY to SELL—time to lock in profits before the market becomes cognizant of its hubris over the stock. KTC posted a 4Q20 bottom-line of Bt1.32bn, flat YoY and up 8% QoQ. The result was 7% below our projection (albeit 7% above theBloombergconsensus), due to a slightly slimmer NIM than assumed. KTC marked a 4Q20 NIM of 21.3%; we had assumed 21.5%.

KTC claims that NPLs will decline further in 4Q20. The lifting of the lockdown enabled more efficient cash collection of bad debts. Besides, the finco plans to speed up bad debt write-offs in 4Q20 and 2021. Management expects the NPLs/loans ratio to decline from 1.9% at end-Sep 2020 to an even lower level by YE20 and the loan loss coverage ratio to remain above 452%. The improving asset quality trend implies that 2021 LLPs will ease YoY. We assume 2020 LLPs (net-of-bad debt recovery) of Bt3bn, up 2% YoY, but have cut our 2021 LLP assumption from Bt3.5bn to Bt2.7bn.

KTC posted a 3Q20 bottom-line of Bt1.22bn, down 6% YoY but up 6% QoQ. The result was 6% above our projection and 8% ahead of the Bloomberg consensus, due to lighter net-loan loss provisioning (LLPs minus recovered bad debts) than assumed. KTC set 3Q20 net-LLPs of Bt933m; we had assumed Bt1bn. Pre-provision operating profit was Bt2.46bn, up 1% YoY but down 13% QoQ. 9M20 earnings represent 74% of our 2020 forecast of Bt5.5bn.

KTC claims that NPLs will decline, following the lifting of the lockdown, which has enabled more efficient cash collection of bad debts. Besides, the firm plans to speed up bad debt write-offs in 2H20. Management expects the NPLs/loans ratio to decline from 6.6% at end-June 2020 to below 4% by YE20 and that the loan loss coverage ratio will rise from 158% at end-June to over 180% by YE20. The improving asset quality trend implies that 2H20 LLPs will fall HoH. Net 1H20 LLPs were Bt1.88bn, up 60% YoY, due to pre-emptive provisioning during the lockdown. We assume 2020 LLPs (net-of-bad debt recovery) of Bt3bn, up 2% YoY.

KTC posted a 2Q20 bottom-line of Bt1.15bn, down by 13% YoY and 30% QoQ. The result was 8% below our projection and 14% shy of the Bloomberg consensus, due to heavier net-loan loss provisioning (LLPs minus recovered bad debts) than assumed. KTC set 2Q20 net-LLPs of Bt1.39bn; we had assumed only Bt1.2bn. Pre-provision operating profit was Bt2.8bn, up by 18% YoY and 12% QoQ. 1H20 earnings dipped 4% YoY to Bt2.8bn, which represents 51% of our 2020 forecast of Bt5.5bn.