Carabao Group PCL
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Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: New venture is a booster
Earning beat for 3Q23. Management is confident over new venture’s margins. Expect YoY and QoQ earnings growth for 4Q23.
23 Nov 2023
Bualuang Securities
23 Nov 2023
Carabao Group PCL: New venture is a booster
Earning beat for 3Q23. Management is confident over new venture’s margins. Expect YoY and QoQ earnings growth for 4Q23.
Bualuang Securities
Thai: Beverage - Outlook for 3Q23 not too bad; 4Q23 high season about to start
Valuation metrics are undemanding. CBG—3Q23 earnings should rise marginally YoY and QoQ. OSP—3Q23 earnings look set to rise YoY but decline QoQ.
24 Oct 2023
Bualuang Securities
24 Oct 2023
Thai: Beverage - Outlook for 3Q23 not too bad; 4Q23 high season about to start
Valuation metrics are undemanding. CBG—3Q23 earnings should rise marginally YoY and QoQ. OSP—3Q23 earnings look set to rise YoY but decline QoQ.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Potential impact of higher sugar prices
What could the impact be on beverage operators? CBG—we still expect 4Q23 earnings to rise YoY and QoQ. OSP—only minimally affected by a global sugar price increase.
7 Sep 2023
Bualuang Securities
7 Sep 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Potential impact of higher sugar prices
What could the impact be on beverage operators? CBG—we still expect 4Q23 earnings to rise YoY and QoQ. OSP—only minimally affected by a global sugar price increase.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Back in growth mode!
Coverage 2023 earnings should rise YoY. CBG—upbeat outlook. OSP—upgrade from HOLD to BUY.
29 Aug 2023
Bualuang Securities
29 Aug 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Back in growth mode!
Coverage 2023 earnings should rise YoY. CBG—upbeat outlook. OSP—upgrade from HOLD to BUY.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Upbeat outlook
New information boosts our profit forecasts and target price. Potential target price could ramp up to Bt121. Expect YoY and QoQ earnings growth for 3Q23 and 4Q23.
23 Aug 2023
Bualuang Securities
23 Aug 2023
Carabao Group PCL: Upbeat outlook
New information boosts our profit forecasts and target price. Potential target price could ramp up to Bt121. Expect YoY and QoQ earnings growth for 3Q23 and 4Q23.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Conditions now more favorable
2Q23 profit expansion expected—higher sales and lower costs. CBG—domestic market share expansion. OSP—QoQ earnings rise expected.
19 Jul 2023
Bualuang Securities
19 Jul 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Conditions now more favorable
2Q23 profit expansion expected—higher sales and lower costs. CBG—domestic market share expansion. OSP—QoQ earnings rise expected.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Upgrade to BUY
Bottomed out in 1Q23. Domestic market share on the rise. Earnings catalysts building up through 4Q23.
28 Jun 2023
Bualuang Securities
28 Jun 2023
Carabao Group PCL: Upgrade to BUY
Bottomed out in 1Q23. Domestic market share on the rise. Earnings catalysts building up through 4Q23.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 1Q23
Profit was below our estimate and that of the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt264m for 1Q23. The 1Q23 top-line declined 14% YoY.
15 May 2023
Bualuang Securities
15 May 2023
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 1Q23
Profit was below our estimate and that of the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt264m for 1Q23. The 1Q23 top-line declined 14% YoY.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Insipid 1Q23 outlook
Insipid outlook undermines Thailand’s energy drink sector. CBG: Downgrade earnings and recommendation. OSP: Earnings improvement QoQ.
26 Apr 2023
Bualuang Securities
26 Apr 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Insipid 1Q23 outlook
Insipid outlook undermines Thailand’s energy drink sector. CBG: Downgrade earnings and recommendation. OSP: Earnings improvement QoQ.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Limited downside risk
Sector’s market share shift should be apparent in mid-2023. CBG: stronger catalysts should kick in by 2H23. OSP: gradual QoQ earnings turnaround momentum.
7 Mar 2023
Bualuang Securities
7 Mar 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Limited downside risk
Sector’s market share shift should be apparent in mid-2023. CBG: stronger catalysts should kick in by 2H23. OSP: gradual QoQ earnings turnaround momentum.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 4Q22
Profit was below our estimate and that of the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt409m for 4Q22. The 4Q22 top-line rose 6% YoY.
20 Feb 2023
Bualuang Securities
20 Feb 2023
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 4Q22
Profit was below our estimate and that of the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt409m for 4Q22. The 4Q22 top-line rose 6% YoY.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Price hikes energize market dynamics
Keep eyes peeled on the upcoming dynamic move! Our scenario for CBG: potentially adding Bt5-10/share. Our scenario for OSP: potentially adding Bt4/share.
17 Feb 2023
Bualuang Securities
17 Feb 2023
Thailand: Beverage - Price hikes energize market dynamics
Keep eyes peeled on the upcoming dynamic move! Our scenario for CBG: potentially adding Bt5-10/share. Our scenario for OSP: potentially adding Bt4/share.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - Better, but not the best
Better outlook, but not the best. A stable market share for CBG; OSP to struggle to rebuild share. We prefer CBG over OSP.
8 Dec 2022
Bualuang Securities
8 Dec 2022
Thailand: Beverage - Better, but not the best
Better outlook, but not the best. A stable market share for CBG; OSP to struggle to rebuild share. We prefer CBG over OSP.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 3Q22
Profit was below our estimate and the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt475m for 3Q22. The 3Q22 top-line rose 19% YoY.
14 Nov 2022
Bualuang Securities
14 Nov 2022
Carabao Group PCL: Substantial miss for 3Q22
Profit was below our estimate and the consensus. CBG reported earnings of Bt475m for 3Q22. The 3Q22 top-line rose 19% YoY.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage - No earnings drivers in sight
Street profit forecast-cutting threatens further stock price downside. Heightened competition continues to squeeze profitability. CBG—weak 3Q22; better numbers for 4Q22.
3 Oct 2022
Bualuang Securities
3 Oct 2022
Thailand: Beverage - No earnings drivers in sight
Street profit forecast-cutting threatens further stock price downside. Heightened competition continues to squeeze profitability. CBG—weak 3Q22; better numbers for 4Q22.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: A weak 3Q22, then a strong 4Q22
Expect QoQ profit slippage for 3Q22. Slim margins will persist into 3Q22 …. …to be followed by the best quarter of the year.
29 Aug 2022
Bualuang Securities
29 Aug 2022
Carabao Group PCL: A weak 3Q22, then a strong 4Q22
Expect QoQ profit slippage for 3Q22. Slim margins will persist into 3Q22 …. …to be followed by the best quarter of the year.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: 2Q22 result in line
2Q22 profit was in line with our estimate and the consensus. CBG reported core earnings of Bt742m for 2Q22. Revenue totaled Bt5.25bn in 2Q22.
15 Aug 2022
Bualuang Securities
15 Aug 2022
Carabao Group PCL: 2Q22 result in line
2Q22 profit was in line with our estimate and the consensus. CBG reported core earnings of Bt742m for 2Q22. Revenue totaled Bt5.25bn in 2Q22.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: The worst has passed; tomorrow’s a new day
The stock trades at a 2023 PER of 30x, a 20% discount to its eight-year historical mean (since its IPO in 2014) of 36x, despite major positive factors. Firstly, CBG’s has built market share in Thai energy drinks space—from 20.7% in 2021 to 21.7% in 2Q22—and we expect more in 2H22. Secondly, it has expanded ex-Thailand sales (the firm is now the biggest player in Cambodia). Our model points to overseas sales rising from Bt2.0bn in 2014 to Bt8.2bn in 2022 and Bt9.6bn in 2023. And our model points to ROE rising from 15% in 2014 to 29% in 2022 and 31% in 2023. The numbers indicate strong fundamentals in the face of a discounted valuation.
20 Jul 2022
Bualuang Securities
20 Jul 2022
Carabao Group PCL: The worst has passed; tomorrow’s a new day
The stock trades at a 2023 PER of 30x, a 20% discount to its eight-year historical mean (since its IPO in 2014) of 36x, despite major positive factors. Firstly, CBG’s has built market share in Thai energy drinks space—from 20.7% in 2021 to 21.7% in 2Q22—and we expect more in 2H22. Secondly, it has expanded ex-Thailand sales (the firm is now the biggest player in Cambodia). Our model points to overseas sales rising from Bt2.0bn in 2014 to Bt8.2bn in 2022 and Bt9.6bn in 2023. And our model points to ROE rising from 15% in 2014 to 29% in 2022 and 31% in 2023. The numbers indicate strong fundamentals in the face of a discounted valuation.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand: Beverage sector - Time to reload energy drink makers!
20 Jul 2022
Bualuang Securities
20 Jul 2022
Thailand: Beverage sector - Time to reload energy drink makers!
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Disappointing 3Q21 result, recovery ahead in 4Q21
15 Nov 2021
Bualuang Securities
15 Nov 2021
Carabao Group PCL: Disappointing 3Q21 result, recovery ahead in 4Q21
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Strong vibes for good entry
We prefer CBG for medium to long-term investment given good entry valuations at a 2022 PER of 28.8x, a 20% discount to its long-term mean of 35.6x. A bearish PER has mostly priced in short-term earnings caution by the street. BUY rating stands at a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt160 (6.5% WACC, 2% terminal growth). CBG’s business in China has revived since 1Q21 after struggling for three years in 2018-2020 (China sales fell by 42% in 2018, 17% in 2019 and 22% in 2020: bottoming out at Bt385m in 2020). In 2H21, we expect China sales to double YoY (QoQ decline in 3Q21 and 4Q21 by seasonality).
30 Aug 2021
Bualuang Securities
30 Aug 2021
Carabao Group PCL: Strong vibes for good entry
We prefer CBG for medium to long-term investment given good entry valuations at a 2022 PER of 28.8x, a 20% discount to its long-term mean of 35.6x. A bearish PER has mostly priced in short-term earnings caution by the street. BUY rating stands at a YE22 DCF-derived target price of Bt160 (6.5% WACC, 2% terminal growth). CBG’s business in China has revived since 1Q21 after struggling for three years in 2018-2020 (China sales fell by 42% in 2018, 17% in 2019 and 22% in 2020: bottoming out at Bt385m in 2020). In 2H21, we expect China sales to double YoY (QoQ decline in 3Q21 and 4Q21 by seasonality).
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Record core earnings seen in 2Q21
In line. CBG reported an all-time high quarterly core profit of Bt967m for 2Q21. CBG has high potential to repeat its record core earnings in 3Q21.
16 Aug 2021
Bualuang Securities
16 Aug 2021
Carabao Group PCL: Record core earnings seen in 2Q21
In line. CBG reported an all-time high quarterly core profit of Bt967m for 2Q21. CBG has high potential to repeat its record core earnings in 3Q21.
Bualuang Securities
Thailand (Bualuang): Consumer - Earnings play in the near term
Improving lead indicators. Broad recovery in 2Q21 sector results outlook. Top-five winners are BCH, CHG, CBG, DOHOME and GLOBAL.
19 Jul 2021
Bualuang Securities
19 Jul 2021
Thailand (Bualuang): Consumer - Earnings play in the near term
Improving lead indicators. Broad recovery in 2Q21 sector results outlook. Top-five winners are BCH, CHG, CBG, DOHOME and GLOBAL.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Back on center stage
Earnings accretion in 2022. Welcome back exports. Exciting earnings are beckoning.
6 Jul 2021
Bualuang Securities
6 Jul 2021
Carabao Group PCL: Back on center stage
Earnings accretion in 2022. Welcome back exports. Exciting earnings are beckoning.
Bualuang Securities
Carabao Group PCL: Disappointing 1Q21 result for all
Below all estimates. CBG reported core profit of Bt700m for 1Q21. The weak result in 1Q21 was the result of sales slippages and margins squeeze.
17 May 2021
Bualuang Securities
17 May 2021
Carabao Group PCL: Disappointing 1Q21 result for all
Below all estimates. CBG reported core profit of Bt700m for 1Q21. The weak result in 1Q21 was the result of sales slippages and margins squeeze.
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Access to recommendations is a Pro feature.
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Overview
Location
Thailand
Region
Global
Sector
Consumer Discretionary
Carabao Group PCL, through its subsidiary, manufactures and distributes energy drinks.
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